Japanese politics are in an unsettled state. Trust in the postwar ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), plummeted following revelations last year of widespread corruption among its politicians involving unreported cash donations. The LDP promised to fix the problem and reform laws governing the nexus between money and politics, but progress has been slow.
The LDP has been subjected to intense criticism from opposition party politicians and average voters. One of the leading voices pressing the ruling party to clean up its act has been Baba Nobuyuki, the leader of the Nippon Ishin no Kai (also known as the Japan Innovation Party) and a House of Representatives member from Osaka’s 17th district. Baba’s efforts to rectify Japan’s politics, however, have been met with resistance – some might say treachery – from the LDP.
Meanwhile, the opposition leader grapples with another challenge. Baba’s pet project, the World Expo 2025 to be hosted by Osaka, has been beset with cost overruns and delays. Several participating countries have scaled back their involvement or withdrawn altogether.
In early July, The Diplomat met with Baba to discuss Japan’s ongoing issues with money in politics and explore potential solutions. He also shared insights on what the global community can expect from the upcoming multinational event in his political stronghold of Osaka.
Baba is a cheerful, smiling man. His office in Tokyo’s Nagatacho district, near the Diet building, is bright and welcoming. He entered the meeting room for our interview impeccably dressed and exuding a friendly air.
We confronted him with an unpleasant first question: The July 4, 2024 issue of the popular news and culture magazine Shukan Bunshun carried an unflattering article about Baba and his Nippon Ishin no Kai.
Hashimoto Toru, former Osaka mayor and founder of Nippon Ishin no Kai, has criticized Baba on X. Hashimoto appeared displeased with the party’s actions regarding the LDP’s proposed amendment to the political funds control law, which Baba’s party opposed in the upper house. It’s a regrettable case of “friendly fire,” as Baba put it in a recent press conference.
We asked Baba if it is true, as some reports claim, that Nippon Ishin no Kai was tricked by the LDP.
The opposition leader was upbeat even in the face of this opening salvo.
“Well, I don’t know if I would use the word ‘tricked,’” he replied. “But to get to the bottom of the issue, the thing to remember is that the trouble we are seeing now with money and politics is a scandal that the LDP brought about. So, we [at Nippon Ishin no Kai] have been saying all along that the onus is on the LDP to show remorse for what it has done and then present a solution that will be acceptable to everyone involved.”
This seems unlikely given the LDP’s behavior thus far. In May 2024, Nippon Ishin no Kai obtained a written pledge from Prime Minister Kishida Fumio that the LDP would reach a decision about legislative measures to reform the “Investigation, Research, Publicity, and Lodging Monies” (also known as the “Former Correspondence Monies”) issue “during the current parliamentary session.” Each Diet member receives a monthly stipend of tax money for “investigation, research, publicity, and lodging,” but it is unclear exactly where this money goes, and oversight is lacking.
Kihara Seiji, a heavyweight member of Kishida’s government and the under-secretary-general of the LDP, later asked Nippon Ishin no Kai to delete the time-limit language from the pledge. The LDP had wriggled out of yet another attempt to separate money and politics.
Making promises of reform and then not delivering is an old game for the LDP. During our interview, Baba presented us with a copy of a document from 1989.
“This is the Outline for Political Reform [Seiji Kaikaku Taiko], which the LDP produced, with the help of outside advisors, and released in the wake of the Recruit Scandal,” Baba explained.
The Recruit Scandal began in 1986 when the chairman of the Recruit Corporation provided pre-IPO stock to politicians and other influential people in Japan. The scandal became a tremendous media sensation, and many LDP politicians were forced out of office or otherwise tarred with the brush of scandal.
“The LDP’s 1989 Outline for Political Reform is a splendid document,” Baba continued. “It’s exhaustive. It encompasses all manner of reform: money and politics, reform of the Diet, political reform, and the election districting system for members of the House of Representatives.”
He gave us a copy of the document to review. It is even more detailed than he described. There is even a section (2.2.3.2) on “exercising self-restraint on the matter of large-scale political-booster gatherings” – the very issue that landed the LDP in hot water again in 2023, when politicians were caught taking cash from supporters without reporting the income as the law requires.
“The LDP should have implemented the reforms they proposed. But they simply tossed the document aside after releasing it and ignored it,” Baba lamented.
Baba asserted that his party has consistently maintained that new reforms are unnecessary. Instead, they advocated for implementing policy changes proposed by the LDP 35 years ago.
“But the LDP countered later that as reforms would entail legislation, they wanted to hear our views,” he said. “So we, the Nippon Ishin no Kai, produced our own proposals, working with representatives from regions across Japan. From this set of proposals, we chose ten and presented them to the LDP for their consideration.”
This was when, Baba said, the LDP brushed them aside. Apparently, the LDP then proceeded to enact the reforms independently, prompting Nippon Ishin no Kai to observe their actions. However, Nippon Ishin no Kai found the reforms proposed by the LDP in the Diet regarding the regulation of money and politics to be unacceptable.
“In the end, even though Komeito [a separate party that is part of the the LDP’s governing coalition] proposed that income over 50,000 yen from tickets sold to political events be subject to reporting and taxation requirements, Kishida, [LDP Vice President] Aso [Taro], and [LDP Secretary-General] Motegi [Toshimitsu] decided, just the three of them, that the requirement would be 100,000 yen,” Baba remarked, highlighting the shortcomings of the legislation.
The LDP continues to strive, it seems, to keep unreported cash flowing into its politicians’ pockets.
“Bracing for a showdown with the Komeito over the money issue, Kishida directed the LDP, on May 29, 2024, to seek Ishin no Kai’s help,” Baba disclosed. “The LDP subsequently approached Endo Takashi [a Nippon Ishin no Kai parliamentarian representing Osaka’s 18th district] for support on the reform measures. Endo agreed to parlay with the LDP on the condition that the LDP promise to first follow through – during the current Diet session – on the reform of the ‘Former Correspondence Monies’ issue it had been ignoring for a very long time.”
“A politician close to Kishida said that Kishida would absolutely do this. This all took place on May 30. The day after that, May 31, I and Kishida were to meet to exchange documents with our plans, including the LDP’s promise, put down in writing.”
However, according to Nippon Ishin no Kai, the LDP reneged on its promises, sparking the online flame war with Hashimoto and further confirming, for many voters, that the LDP is not a trustworthy organization.
We asked Baba whether he shares the view held by many people in Japan that the LDP is not serious about reforming its bad habits of mixing money and politics.
“The LDP has zero remorse,” Baba replied. “Zero.”
We then pivoted our discussion to the World Expo 2025, which will be held in Osaka next year. The budget for the event has ballooned over the past few years. Some countries have withdrawn from the event altogether, citing construction uncertainty, while others have downgraded their pavilion presence. Adding to the headaches, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, an Expo 2025 sponsor, pulled funding due to a product recall unrelated to the Osaka event.
We asked Baba if the Osaka World Expo 2025 is still worth the trouble and expense.
“A world’s fair is something that comes along only once every five or six years,” Baba replied. “Also, a world’s fair is something that countries work on together, a project which unfolds over time, starting from the moment the host country is decided and continuing from there. So, in the course of planning for an upcoming event, it is only natural that some countries will make adjustments, such as to what kind of pavilion they wish to use, based on changing economic conditions domestically.
“It’s also natural that some countries will pull out along the way. The media is deceptive, however, in not reporting that countries are signing up for Expo 2025 anew,” he continued. “In January 2024, San Marino joined. In March, Colombia. And in June, Sierra Leone and Barbados signed up for Expo 2025.”
We also asked about an explosion at one of the Expo 2025 construction sites. In March 2024, sparks from construction work caused a minor explosion of methane gas leaking from under the site.
“Methane gas is going to form anytime there is a landfill,” Baba replied.
The ground on which the Expo 2025 will be held is reclaimed from the ocean using various materials. Chemical processes in landfills often produce out-venting of methane and other gasses.
“There are scientifically reliable methods for dealing with methane gas escaping from landfills and ensuring that it does not mix with oxygen in amounts that will lead to explosions,” Baba noted. “Further, what happened at the construction site [in March] was caused principally by a mistake in procedure.
“The situation is not nearly as dangerous as has been reported,” Baba continued. “What happened at the construction site must not happen again. But in general, the Expo 2025 grounds are safe. The construction incident will help us reformulate our safety measures to an even higher level than before.”
As we left the interview, Baba made a remark that illustrates the state of Japanese politics today. Referring back to the Shukan Bunshun article outlining how Baba and other Nippon Ishin no Kai members were allegedly hoodwinked by LDP politicians, Baba said that he wishes the focus would be on the deception and not on the deceived.
This recalled a statement Baba made during the interview, when he said that the LDP would probably remain the ruling party for the time being, even if the coming round of elections would likely be a bitter trial for the LDP.