On May 28, North Korea made its first attempt at launching balloons carrying garbage toward the territory of South Korea. Pyongyang was responding to the launch of balloons carrying USB drives and a number of $1 bills by South Korean activists who are North Korean defectors. The USB drives contain documents and videos elaborating the brutal dictatorship of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and how South Korea has developed under freedom and democracy since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Since that first launch in May, Pyongyang has sent more than 2,000 trash-carrying balloons to the South, which were mostly found in regions near the inter-Korean border. Due to the risk of debris falling onto private buildings and people, the South Korean military has not shot the balloons down even after it detected them. There were some concerns that the balloon launches could be the North’s attempt to commit chemical or biological terrorism, but the South Korean authorities confirmed that only garbage – like shoes, cigarette butts, plastic water bottles, and manure – has been found.
On July 14, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, claimed that “dirty leaflets and things of scum” were found again, referring to balloons launched from South Korea. She implied that Pyongyang will launch trash-carrying balloons toward the South again, but with a different style.
“We have fully introduced our countermeasure in such situation. The clans will be tired from suffering a bitter embarrassment and must be ready for paying a very high price for their dirty play,” Kim said.
On July 18, North Korea again launched balloons, believed to be laden with trash like before, toward the South.
When the liberal Moon Jae-in government was in power in South Korea, between 2017 and 2022, the balloon launches by North Korean defectors were not welcomed, as inter-Korean dialogue had resumed. South Korea’s National Assembly passed a law banning balloon launches near the inter-Korean border for the safety of South Korean residents living nearby the one of the most heavily-armed borders in the world.
However, South Korea’s Constitutional Court struck down the law last year, calling it an unconstitutional infringement on the freedom of speech. Since then, North Korean defectors turned South Korean civil activists have resumed launching balloons toward the North, with the expressed intent of undermining Kim Jong Un’s regime. These provocative activities caused Pyongyang’s immediate reaction in the past few months.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have risen in the wake of the balloon clashes between Seoul and Pyongyang. Also, since South Korea formally expressed its intention not to abide by the 9.19 Military Agreement, which was signed to defuse tensions near the border during the inter-Korean summit in 2018, the two Koreas have not hesitated to conduct military drills near the inter-Korean borders. These activities could break out unexpected military clashes; already South Korea’s military has reported firing warning shots at North Korean troops who (apparently inadvertently) crossed the border on at least three occasions.
The increased tensions come at a sensitive time internationally. Since U.S. President Joe Biden took office in January 2021, Washington’s bid to re-engage in nuclear talks with Pyongyang has not worked at all. As Biden has focused on other major international crises – such as the withdrawal of U.S. military troops in Afghanistan, the Russia-Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas War and the rising power of China – Pyongyang has not attempted to negotiate with the U.S. administration. Instead, Kim has seized the moment to advance North Korea’s military development.
For Kim Jong Un, the current international security environment creates ideal conditions for him to develop more advanced nuclear weapons, as Russia reflexively vetoes all U.S.-led attempts to impose additional sanctions against North Korea’s ballistic missile tests in the U.N. Security Council. Moscow has also effectively killed the U.N. Panel of Experts designed to monitor compliance with existing sanctions, making it easier for Pyongyang to skirt the restrictions already in place.
Also, as Russia seems to have provided economic aid to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang supplying munitions for Moscow’s war with Ukraine, North Korea has no reason to return to the nuclear talks and dismantle its nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting up the economic sanctions against it.
Amid this dramatically changing international security environment, former U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be the favorite in the upcoming presidential elections. His rival, incumbent president Biden, faces declining approval ratings, particularly after a poor debate performance. After Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13, it seems the possibility of his re-election is even higher than before as his strong image perfectly contrasted with perceptions of Biden’s declining cognitive and physical ability.
Considering Trump’s re-election, there are speculations that Pyongyang may seek dialogue with the second Trump administration. After all, Trump was the first sitting U.S. president to meet with a North Korean leader in history. However, given the circumstances, Pyongyang will continue to seek strengthening cooperation with Moscow, according to experts in Washington and Seoul – unless Trump, as he vowed, ends the Ukraine War after he takes office.
In a bid to effectively deter North Korea’s growing aggression and its missile threats, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol has constantly sought to strengthen ties with the United States and Japan. Since he took office in May 2022, South Korea has conducted not only ramped up bilateral military exercises with the U.S. but also trilateral drills involving the two allies as well as Japan. As North Korea perceives the drills as an invasion rehearsal, it will continue to up the ante in its response – up to and including a potential seventh nuclear test. Analysts agree preparations are complete and such a test can be conducted any time Kim Jong Un desires.
Unfortunately, there is no chance that Seoul can defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula and halt the North’s provocative actions on its own. At the time of the inter-Korean engagements in 2018, there were no major international crises equivalent to today’s Russia-Ukraine War. Today, the U.S. is distracted and engaged in fierce geopolitical competition between Washington on one side and China and Russia on the other. As a result, North Korea’s neighbors to the north have little incentive to seek a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, as they perceive this would only serve U.S. interests.
In this context, South should widen its role in the international stage rather than appearing to the world as merely a loyal U.S. ally. Seoul should engage in dialogue with Beijing as much as possible, as Pyongyang cannot survive without China’s economic pipeline.
While recalibrating its policy on North Korea, Seoul should also activate its networks in Washington to connect with those who might be in charge of Northeast Asian security in the second Trump administration, assuming Trump wins in the elections in November.
Rather than exploiting relations with the U.S. as the only antidote to resolve security conflicts on the Korean Peninsula, it is time for Seoul to enhance its self-defense and diplomatic capabilities so as to make Pyongyang treat Seoul as a legitimate partner on the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.