The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan’s ruling party, is expected to hold its presidential election in September when Kishida Fumio’s presidential term expires. The stakes are high: Given the LDP’s majority in parliament, its internal leadership election also determines the prime minister of Japan. And although no one – including Kishida himself – has officially announced their intention to run, the candidates and their potential backers are gearing up for the eventual showdown.
At this point, there have been reports that Ishiba Shigeru and Kono Taro, both popular and maverick politicians, have told those surrounding them that they will participate in the contest. This likely means that they would challenge Kishida, who recently hinted at his reelection bid at a press conference by asserting that he had “unfinished business.” Motegi Toshimitsu, Kishida’s supposed number two man in the party, and current Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae have also shown interest in running. The youthful backbenchers of the party are also mulling over whether to back a candidate of their own, such as Kobayashi Takayuki, a 49-year-old former Cabinet member, to show the public that the party is no longer obligated to the old guards that had ignited the crisis – namely the slush fund scandal.
However, while almost all prominent candidates remain silent and work beneath the surface, one prominent party member has publicly stated that he would strongly prefer somebody other than Kishida, and will concentrate his political prowess to realize that eventuality: former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide. During his appearance in an online program, Suga questioned Kishida’s refusal to take responsibility for the slush fund scandal, implying that the logical conclusion to resolve the situation would be the party leader’s resignation – meaning that of Kishida.
Suga, who has been a strong advocate for abolishing factions, is widely seen as the nominal leader of the non-faction members of the party. At one point, the grouping of non-faction LDP members was virtually the second largest faction in the party, but was a weak force to be reckoned with since they did not behave as one large bloc. However, the backlash from the slush fund scandal has caused the public to perceive party factions as a hotbed of corruption, leading respective factions to voluntarily dissolve into organs that would focus solely on policy, while prohibiting their previous role as a collector of campaign funds.
Although factions still exist in the current LDP – such as the Aso faction, which has 55 members – legislators who are not a part of a particular faction are now the majority. Although personal ties will not dissipate easily, legislators are expected to feel less pressure to follow the lead of their factional bosses, rendering the vast majority of the legislators’ votes – which weighed heavily in past presidential races – up for grabs.
Although both Suga and Kishida have been loyal members of the LDP and trusted Cabinet members of Abe Shinzo – under Abe, Suga was the longest-serving Cabinet secretary general and Kishida was the longest-tenured Foreign Minister, next to Yoshida Shigeru who handled the role of prime minister and top diplomat concurrently – the similarities end there. The first major difference between the two is their political odyssey. While Kishida was born into a political family, Suga built up his connections in politics from scratch; Kishida has been described as “Mr. Status quo,” indicating his preference for gradual change, which is contrary to Suga’s persona as a reformist, who coaxed the bureaucracy to achieve results and demonizes “vested interests” and “red tape” as obstacles to Japan’s growth.
On the policy front, the ongoing debate over ride-sharing highlights Suga and Kishida’s differences. The focal point of the debate is whether to allow private drivers to use their automobiles to transfer passengers in exchange for cash – an enterprise that is common abroad but illegal in Japan. Suga has strongly supported loosening restrictions on ride-hailing services, which will provide inhabitants in rural areas and foreign tourists with access to reasonable transportation. Kishida has sensed the need to move forward with easing restrictions on ride-sharing, but with limits on both the area and the time where these services are offered. These limits reflect Kishida’s predisposition to minor fixes and his heeding of opposition from the taxi industry and members of the ruling party who are its constituents.
The background and policy preferences of the two prime ministers have complicated their relationship. Yanagisawa Takashi, a correspondent of Nippon TV, asked Suga about Kishida’s appearance during a TV interview in 2019; Suga had no kind words.
“They asked [Kishida] what you wanted to do as PM, and he said it was personnel. In that program, he also said something else about taking care of ‘officials.’ That’s an obvious thing to say. But when government officials make a mistake, it is politics that corrects it. It’s tantamount to saying that you won’t do anything, isn’t it?”
Yanagisawa, in his biography of Suga, concluded that at the time, “Suga was ruled by the strong feeling that he could not leave the helm of Japan to Kishida, who was incapable of reform.”
Konno Shinobu, a reporter from the Asahi Shimbun, also shared a similar story, which indicates that Suga has been intentionally or unintentionally shaping Kishida’s image behind his back by publicly revealing his strong distaste of Kishida the politician. However, the tone of Suga’s words as quoted by Konno seems much stronger than in the report from Yanagiswa: “When asked what he would like to do as prime minister, he [Kishida] answered, ‘personnel.’ In short, he doesn’t have a job or a vision that he wants to do.”
Kishida appears to recognize that he is disliked by his predecessor. When Suga was elected prime minister, he broke party norms and handpicked members of Kishida’s faction to enter his Cabinet without consulting its leader, Kishida. Konno reported that after hearing Suga’s decision to bypass him, Kishida solemnly remarked that “I must be so hated.”
Kishida’s weak ties with Suga allowed him to make a bold move to challenge the incumbent prime minister and party leader in 2021. When he launched his second bid for the LDP president in 2021 – after he was defeated by Suga in a landslide in 2020 – Kishida stated, “Our country’s democracy is at stake as a public trust, which is the foundation of politics, has been severely shattered.” It was an unmerciful depiction of the state of the country that Suga was then responsible for managing.
Although there have been reports that Suga is inclined to back Koizumi Shinjiro, his protege, and son of former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, to challenge Kishida, his ultimate pick is still uncertain. However, what is certain is that the contests this fall will be more than a power struggle between Kishida, who represents the mainstream, and the non-mainstream that Suga has sway over. The upcoming LDP election will be a battle over policy and personality, and the two prime ministers that represent opposing sides will symbolize the LDP’s internal divide.