Since the outbreak of violence and unrest on May 13, New Caledonia has been ravaged. Its situation speaks to one of the central issues at the heart of the Pacific Islands Forum, an organization with decolonization in its DNA, which is now wrestling with a growing struggle for independence in New Caledonia, decades in the making.
The root of this outbreak was a growing protest from the pro-independence camp against a constitutional bill to modify the electorate.
New Caledonia is a sui generis overseas collectivity, a semi-autonomous region in the process of decolonizing itself from France. This started with the Nouméa Accord in 1998 and culminated in three successive New Caledonian referendums on self-determination from France in 2018, 2020, and 2021, in which the “No” vote won each time.
But that third referendum, in 2021, was the catalyst for the chaos of today. Coming amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the pro-independence camp called on the French government to postpone the vote. The independence group, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (Front de libération nationale kanak et socialiste or FLNKS), argued that the health and safety risks of proceeding with the vote and the indigenous Kanak population’s mourning rituals precluded them from properly campaigning.
With the vote proceeding in these circumstances, FLNKS and other pro-independence groups considered the result illegitimate. Since that December 2021 referendum, dialogue between the French government and New Caledonian independence groups has remained at a standstill, despite several attempts by the former.
During this period, FLNKS has sought to amplify its claim on the world stage, in particular with the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).
New Caledonia and PIF
Since the Nouméa Accord, the French State and New Caledonia have shared sovereignty over foreign relations, but the archipelago has benefited from gradual integration into its regional environment, particularly within the PIF, where it became a full member in 2016.
But the journey to get here took a long time, stemming as far back as the PIF’s previous incarnation, the South Pacific Forum, which was created in 1971 with the imperative to form a regional organization completely detached from the former colonial powers. This made the relationship between France and the forum fraught from the outset, particularly in the 1980s when New Caledonia was in the throes of civil war. It was then, on the forum’s initiative, that New Caledonia was reinstated on the U.N. list of Non-Self-Governing Territories in 1986.
For a long time, being an independent state was a necessity for membership of the forum. Despite the fact the forum has accepted the principle of membership for associate states that are not U.N. members (such as the Cook Islands and Niue), it still requires applicant territories to have a sufficiently high degree of self-government.
Since the Nouméa Accord of 1998 and the Organic Law, passed in France in 1999, external relations have been a shared responsibility between France and New Caledonia. Benefiting from increased autonomy within the French Constitution and a stronger investment in the Oceania region, New Caledonia became a Pacific Islands Forum observer member in 1999, an associate member in 2006, and a full member in 2016.
For both France and New Caledonia, regional development is perceived as a “win-win” situation: for France, the integration of New Caledonia is seen as an opportunity to relay its French influence, while the New Caledonian archipelago discovers a coveted status as a pivotal intermediary between the small Pacific islands and the Western powers, notably France and Europe.
The PIF now comprises 18 states and territories in Oceania, including New Caledonia and French Polynesia.
Despite some friction between Paris and Nouméa on how this competence is shared, the regional integration of New Caledonia (but also of the other French collectivities in Oceania) has helped to legitimize France’s status as a regional partner in Oceania.
Fallout From the May 13 Riots
The regional integration of New Caledonia has not extinguished its neighbors’ support for the Kanak independence movement.
The Melanesian Spearhead Group, an intergovernmental group including Fiji, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu, also counts the FLNKS as a member. A 2022 PIF ministerial mission brought global attention to the stalemate and breakdown in dialogue — according to them — since the third referendum in 2021.
This regional support became important in 2024, as the New Caledonian government pushed to amend the constitution to modify who was eligible to vote. The proposed change, which passed through French Parliament, would allow around 25,000 new voters, something they’d previously been prevented from doing. Such a change could destabilize the balance of power to the detriment of pro-independence voters, which is essentially the indigenous Kanak vote, a political divide along ethnic lines that has crystallized in New Caledonia over 30 years.
Opposition in New Caledonia to the constitutional amendment was fierce: in demonstrations across April and May, tens of thousands of people poured into the streets of Nouméa to protest. Then, on May 13, violence flared and a state of emergency was declared two days later.
As dissent erupted, the PIF was quick to react. PIF General-Secretary Henry Puna said he was “not surprised,” as the situation had been “boiling over” since the 2021 referendum. PIF President Mark Brown said that “unrest is grounds for recognizing greater autonomy and independence for the people of these islands.”
Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai — currently the president of the Melanesian Spearhead Group — declared the group’s support for FLNKS in its fight against the constitutional bill. Salwai argued the unrest in New Caledonia “could have been avoided if the French Government had listened and not proceeded to bulldoze the Constitutional Bill.”
On the sidelines of the 10th triennial Pacific Islands Leaders’ Summit in Japan in July, and at the request of FLNKS, the PIF’s response to the situation was a proposal for a mission to New Caledonia by three prime ministers to promote a “lasting resolution” to the political crisis in the archipelago.
This proposal was accepted a few days later by the French government. Initially scheduled to take place before the PIF’s leaders meeting in Tonga, the mission will now take place “when conditions permit, in liaison with the local authorities.”
Following the destruction in New Caledonia, France is playing the transparency card with the forum by agreeing to host a fact-finding mission to New Caledonia. But it seems clear that this mission will have political and diplomatic repercussions.
While France has sought to enhance its image in Oceania since the beginning of the 21st century, as demonstrated by the accession of two of its collectivities as full members of PIF in 2016, the crisis in New Caledonia is amplifying regional support for the demand for independence and risks permanently tarnishing France’s image in the region.
For PIF members and for France, the priority remains the political and security appeasement of the situation in New Caledonia. Above all, France will seek to ensure that the PIF does not become a prelude to a much larger international resonance chamber for the Kanak demand for independence.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.