Bangladesh, a nation of 174 million people, is currently facing one of its worst political crises since independence, one that threatens to nullify the progress that the country made in the last decade. On August 5, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned after 15 years in power and suddenly left the country for India. She is reportedly seeking asylum in a third country.
Under Hasina’s rule, the Bangladeshi economy made rapid strides, but also, it took an authoritarian turn.
Her resignation and exit came amid massive student protests against quotas for government jobs that were seen to favor the ruling Awami League. Hasina’s description of the protesters as “razakars” infuriated the students as this is a term that refers to the “collaborators” i.e. the Bengali militia that supported the Pakistani Army during Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war against Pakistan. Adding fuel to the fire was the use of coercive force by authorities to quell protests, which resulted in the death of nearly 300 people. This set off another wave of protests, and a wider movement demanding Hasina’s resignation.
The Bangladesh military has announced the formation of an interim government pending elections. Parliament was dissolved and former Prime Minister Khalida Zia of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party has been released. Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus is set to take charge of the interim government.
The unfolding situation in Dhaka has multiple implications for India’s internal and external security.
After Hasina came to power in 2009, India-Bangladesh relations grew rapidly. Her exit is expected to cast a shadow over the progress made in bilateral relations. Worryingly, the protests have seen the raising of anti-India slogans due to the closeness between India and Hasina.
There are several possible challenges that India could face ahead. First, while Bangladeshi Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman has announced an interim government, there is no clarity on its nature. What political direction it will take and how it will impact Bangladesh’s relations with India remains to be seen. Thus, India needs to forge ties with the new regime as soon as possible.
Second, India’s close affinity with Hasina led to New Delhi’s negligible engagement with Bangladeshi opposition groups. Hence, it will need to invest in solid diplomatic efforts to recover lost ground and address the anti-India sentiment.
Third, India’s relations were not easy with the BNP or Islamist groups like the radical Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which are likely to have a strong influence over the interim government’s foreign policy. It may open the door for Pakistan’s entry into the polity of Bangladesh, which will negatively impact India’s security with Bangladesh.
Fourth, not just Pakistan, India will have to face another major rival: China. While the Hasina government maintained cordial ties with China, her friendship with India was much stronger. Unlike Western countries, both India and China provided support to Hasina’s strategies during elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had described Bangladesh as the key pillar of India’s “Neighborhood First Policy.” Hasina was the first foreign dignitary to visit India at the start of Modi’s third term as prime minister. Now, after Hasina’s exit, Beijing can be expected to expand its influence in Bangladesh. India’s strategic encirclement by a weak and ambivalent Bangladesh in the east, the communist-led government in Nepal, unfriendly China and Pakistan to the north and west, a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan in the far west and finally, an anti-India Maldives in the Indian Ocean will impact India’s security.
Fifth, India will have to work with the new interim government to ensure the continuity of various transit arrangements with Bangladesh as the former needs them for better logistics supply to its northeast region.
Last, the unrest threatens India’s infrastructure projects in Bangladesh and may disrupt the potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks between the two countries.
The re-emergence of the BNP in Bangladesh’s political scene is a worrying development for India as the party is alleged to have close ties with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, which was instrumental in multiple terror attacks in India between 2001 and 2006 when the BNP was in power. During this period, anti-India insurgent groups active in India’s Northeast received shelter in Bangladesh under the BNP. It was only after Hasina returned to power that these insurgent camps were shut down and militants handed over to India.
In 2019 again, the ISI was allegedly making efforts for the return of the Jamaaat-e-Islami and pro-Pakistan BNP. Just like Islamabad, Beijing is also a close ally of both BNP and Jamaat, thus, posing a security threat in India’s neighborhood.
Under Hasina, India-Bangladeshi defense ties grew. These included Indian defense exports to Dhaka, capacity-building programs, joint military exercises and training of Bangladeshi military personnel.
Though Bangladesh’s military chief is considered to be favorably inclined to India, the influence of BNP and Jamaat will strain defense ties between the two countries.
On Hasina’s departure, some intelligence sources have pointed fingers at Western countries like the U.S. and U.K. for building an anti-Hasina narrative after she reportedly turned down the U.S. request for a base on Bangladeshi soil. In recent years, Washington also criticized Hasina for the suppression of opposition parties. However, some experts claim that on India’s insistence, the U.S. toned down its criticism of Hasina considering Bangladesh’s role in the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, Hasina’s departure could create challenges for India and the U.S. in containing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific by ceding space to a pro-China regime in Dhaka.
After maintaining silence for over a day over rapidly changing events in Dhaka, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar chaired an all-party meeting on the Bangladesh situation on August 6, where he briefed leaders about the steps India is taking to tackle the security, diplomatic and economic repercussions of unfolding events in Bangladesh, and for ensuring the safety of Indian nationals in Bangladesh. To secure the country’s 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) has been put on high alert. Around 915.35 km of India’s border with Bangladesh is unfenced and there are fears that protracted tensions in Dhaka could spill over into India.
In his address to the Rajya Sabha, India’s upper house of parliament, Jaishankar said the attacks on minorities, especially Hindus, their houses and places of worship in Bangladesh as “worrying.” He said that India is closely monitoring their condition
As India seeks a way forward with the interim government, it will need to be cautious. As former Indian Foreign Secretary, Harsh Vardhan Shringla remarked, “India does not have too many options at this point in time. We have to tighten control of our borders. Anything else would be construed as interference.”