The last five years have seen a steep decline in the number of Indonesians getting married. Statistics Indonesia reported the number of registered marriages dropped from 2,016,071 in 2018 to only 1,577,255 in 2023.
Some have interpreted this decline as a sign of progress in reducing early marriages. Others, including policymakers such as the National Population and Family Planning Agency, are worried about its implications for the country’s fertility rate. Indonesia’s total fertility rate has reached its lowest level in four decades, at around 2.18 children per woman in 2020. It’s projected to continue falling to 1.97 by 2045.
This trend raises concerns that Indonesia may exit its demographic bonus period — a phase during which the productive age population, 15 to 64-year-olds, is greater than the non-productive population — earlier than previously anticipated.
It will then enter an aging population phase, with the elderly population expected to rise from 6.2 percent in 2020 to 14.6 percent by 2045.
Choosing Not to Get Married Early or at All
The decline in marriage rates in Indonesia reflects significant socioeconomic shifts, particularly increased access to education and employment opportunities for women, and the rising cost of living in urban areas.
These factors have led to evolving social norms around marriage, with many people choosing to delay getting married. The mean age at first marriage has gone from 19.3 and 23.8 years for women and men respectively in 1971, to 22.4 and 27.1 years in 2017.
Despite this shift, marriage continues to hold cultural and social value in Indonesia, often marking the transition from youth to adulthood and remaining deeply intertwined with religious and family expectations.
While modern values like personal choice and self-fulfillment are gaining prominence, the traditional view of marriage as a critical marker of adulthood persists, creating a duality in societal norms. Although young people now have more freedom in choosing when and whom to marry, particularly those with higher education and those living in developed regions such as Jakarta, marriage remains a central value.
However, past trends have shown fluctuations, such as during the transition from the New Order era to the Reformasi (Reform) era in 1998, when the increasing age at first marriage temporarily stalled, especially for women in rural areas.
Even with recent legal changes, such as raising the minimum marriage age for brides from 16 to 19 years, the issue of child and early marriage persists. While there has been a gradual decline in rates of early marriage, the high number of marriage dispensation petitions to religious courts indicates ongoing challenges in fully enforcing the new legal standards.
Movements like the “Indonesia Tanpa Pacaran” (Indonesia Without Dating) campaign have romanticized early marriage as a moral alternative to traditional courtship, further complicating efforts to delay marriage and reduce child marriage rates.
The Rise of the Childfree Movement
While the drop in marriage rates may reflect significant socioeconomic shifts, another factor contributing to falling fertility rates is the growing childfree movement among young Indonesians. This movement has gained traction, particularly on social media, where a recent debate was sparked after a celebrity publicly announced her decision to remain childfree, drawing both support and backlash.
Statistics Indonesia’s data confirm an increase in childless women, from 7 percent in 2019 to 8.2 percent in 2022. These are women who are at reproductive age who have no children and did not use any contraceptive methods.
This shift has prompted concern among policymakers, who warn that the childfree trend could threaten Indonesia’s demographic stability by contributing to a faster decline in the fertility rate.
It is important to distinguish between the declining fertility rate and changing attitudes toward marriage and parenthood.
The decrease in fertility is largely due to successful family planning programs that promote smaller family sizes — a situation that has become widely accepted across Indonesian society. The escalating costs of raising children have also contributed to this trend.
The delay in marriage has subsequently shifted the age at which women give birth to their first child from between 20 and 24 to between 25 and 29, reflecting broader societal changes, including women prioritizing education and career before starting a family.
Higher education levels, particularly among women, are associated with declining marriage and fertility rates. As people become more educated, they tend to recognize the economic and personal costs of childbearing, leading to a shift from focusing on the number of children to the quality of upbringing.
However, in Indonesia, this trend is less pronounced compared to other countries where it has also been observed. This suggests that advancements in education alone may not be sufficient to drive a significant reduction in total fertility rate, as seen in more developed Asian economies. Given Indonesia’s vast diversity, it is crucial to consider the cultural and contextual factors when analyzing the relationship between education and fertility.
How Could Policymakers Respond?
To address these demographic shifts, Indonesia could look to other countries that have successfully implemented policies to reduce the cost of raising children. Countries like Sweden have introduced comprehensive family support systems, including parental leave, childcare subsidies, and flexible work arrangements, which have helped to promote shared caregiving responsibility and help couples to balance work and family life.
By adapting similar policies suited to the country’s context, Indonesia could mitigate the potential negative impacts of these trends and support couples in balancing their work and family life without compromising their family aspirations.
While the decline in marriage rates in Indonesia and the increasing aspirations of some couples to remain childfree reflect a shift in social norms and increasing individual autonomy, these trends also present challenges that policymakers must address.
Despite advancements in education and legal reforms, the persistence of early marriage highlights the complexity of cultural norms and economic pressures that continue to shape the country’s demographics.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.