For much of the postwar era, the Liberal Democratic Party has governed Japan from a position of legislative strength. But today, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru must lead his country with a minority coalition, alongside the LDP’s longstanding junior partner Komeito. His Cabinet’s public approval rating is low: 40 percent according to a recent Kyodo poll, up from 32 percent a month ago. Within the Diet, the opposition has control over the critical Budget Committee, suggesting that Ishiba’s first trial will be funding next year’s priorities.
The contrast between Ishiba’s weakness at home and the strength of his predecessors could not be starker. An LDP-Komeito supermajority in the Diet since 2012 had facilitated significant changes in Japanese security and foreign policy. Former prime ministers Abe Shinzo and Kishida Fumio used this domestic political strength to develop Japan’s strategic influence on the global stage.
Japan’s weakened political leadership comes at a difficult time globally. Ishiba has far greater volatility to consider as he develops Japan’s ties abroad. Two wars now rage, one in Europe and the other in the Middle East, with no end yet in sight. Donald Trump is returning to power in the United States, bringing with him unpredictability in trade and security priorities. China continues to be Japan’s greatest strategic challenge and military pressures from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around Japan’s air and maritime region have grown. North Korea is demonstrating the benefits of a new defense arrangement with Russia, and there is concern in Northeast Asia that this will translate into considerable technological advantage to Kim Jong Un’s nuclear aims.
If Japan’s prime minister must spend most of his time negotiating with opposition parties at home, Japan may be a less focused internationally.
Fifth Time Is the Charm
When Kishida announced he was stepping down from office, he called for a “fresh face” for his party, someone who could turn the page on the scandals that plagued the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Kishida also referenced the talent within the LDP, asking his party to put together a “dream team” of policymakers up to the task of tackling Japan’s considerable challenges in the years ahead. Kishida’s withdrawal from consideration for party president opened the door to the largest field of candidates for LDP leadership in history.
Ishiba was quick to raise his hand for what would be his fifth attempt, and he said, his last, to lead Japan’s conservative party. He announced his bid on August 24 and stated that as leader he would return to politics that respected the rules, defend Japan – its territory and its people – protect and revitalize the countryside, and ensure a bright future. His background as a defense expert was amply displayed during the campaign.
Ishiba’s popularity with the public and importantly with the grassroots members of the LDP was his biggest advantage. Yet he had a serious challenger: Takaichi Sanae, a self-proclaimed protégé of Abe Shinzo and a serious social conservative with clearly defined views on bolstering Japan’s military power. In fact, to the surprise of many, Takaichi came out on top in the first round, with an advantage not only with Diet members but also with the grassroots members of the party. Ishiba came in second.
Party rules then required a runoff vote between the two several hours later, and this round included only sitting legislators. The alignments of senior policy leaders began to shift, and Ishiba garnered the support of former prime ministers Kishida and Suga Yoshihide while Takaichi was endorsed by former prime minister Aso Taro. The final vote was close, 215 to 194, revealing a serious divide within the LDP over the choice.