On November 15, South Korea’s Central District Court sentenced opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung to one year in prison with a two-year probation for violating the Public Official Election Act. The deliberation followed Lee’s indictment in September 2022 and marked the first verdict among his four ongoing trials.
Lee had been charged with publishing false information related to the alleged preferential rezoning of the Korea Food Research Institute site in Seongnam City and his connection to the late Kim Moon-ki, the former deputy director of development at the Seongnam Urban Development Corporation. These controversies date back to Lee’s tenure as mayor of Seongnam.
As an executive in the city’s development project, Kim was seen as a key witness in investigating allegations that Lee’s preferential treatment granted a local real estate developer the ability to transform the site into an apartment complex. However, Kim was found dead in December 2021, just as suspicions surrounding the case were intensifying.
Prosecutors believe then-presidential candidate Lee lied about his relationship with Kim to distance himself from the scandal leading up to the 2022 presidential election, in which Lee was the DP’s candidate.
Indeed, Lee has long denied any acquaintance with Kim and dismissed accusations of preferential rezoning. In December 2021, Lee gave multiple media interviews, rejecting claims that he knew Kim during his time as mayor of Seongnam. Earlier that October, while testifying at the parliamentary audit of the Gyeonggi provincial government, Lee asserted that he had been “pressured” by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport to rezone the former site of the Korea Food Research Institute, insisting no favoritism was at play.
The court, however, found portions of Lee’s statements about Kim to be false and concluded there was no evidence of government pressure to repurpose the land in question.
If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, Lee will lose his parliamentary seat and be barred from running in the pivotal 2027 presidential election – provided the verdict is finalized beforehand.
Democratic Party lawmakers argue that the latest ruling is unjust and unlikely to reshape the political landscape. Still, some experts say it delivers a sharp setback to the opposition leader.
“South Korea’s election laws are fairly straightforward, and the court’s decision in this case was very reasonable,” said Hong Sungkee, former Dean of Inha University Law School.
Hong, who heads the Legal Ethics and Professional Conduct Council, added, “Lee is rallying the opposition with calls for a constitutional amendment to shorten President Yoon Suk-yeol’s term, but his political momentum will likely continue its downward trajectory from here on out.”
Mired in his own political scandals, Yoon’s approval ratings have plummeted in recent months. The opposition parties have seized on this, advocating for an early retirement of the president through a constitutional amendment that would shorten the presidential term by 1-2 years and call for a special election to choose a new leader. Members of the ruling People Power Party have criticized this maneuver as an attempt to bury Lee’s legal risks.
Lee and his party previously came under similar scrutiny for actions that appeared to be an attempt to evade legal responsibilities. In July, the DP – which holds the majority in South Korea’s unicameral parliament – introduced a motion to impeach four prosecutors probing Lee’s cases. Last fall, Lee staged a 24-day hunger strike as investigations against him escalated.
Lee Dong-hwan, an attorney experienced in handling political cases, argued that the judges presiding over Lee’s trials may not look positively at his recent actions outside the courthouse to influence the proceedings.
“Although Lee Jae-myung, a lawyer himself, may find the verdict dissatisfying, he has the option of appealing and potentially overturning some of the convictions,” he said. “A case can be made that a prison sentence is excessive when the Constitution offers broader protection for politicians’ political expression.”
Lee Dong-hwan, however, noted that if the Yoon government’s popularity continues to falter, Lee Jae-Myung could steer the courtroom battle in a more politicized direction.
The day after his sentencing, the DP leader stood before a jubilant crowd in Gwanghwamun Square, declaring, “I will never die” in a display of resilience.
But despite his resolve, the opposition leader’s legal woes are set to persist for the foreseeable future. Lee is facing three additional trials on charges ranging from bribery to breach of trust and violations of the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act, some of which could carry far harsher penalties. On November 19, he was indicted in a new case on charges of misappropriating funds while serving as the governor of Gyeonggi Province.
Meanwhile, a ruling on Lee’s alleged subornation of a witness to commit perjury is expected next Monday.
Lee and the DP continue to maintain that all the charges are politically motivated, but his precarious prospects cast an ominous shadow over Lee’s presidential aspirations. A conviction in his remaining trials may not only result in the opposition leader’s legal disqualification but may deliver an irreparable blow to his reputation, leaving his political legacy in tatters.
Besides, Lee faces the threat of internal fractures as “anti-Lee” factions within the party may seek to exploit his vulnerabilities to bolster their political standing. The sting of betrayal remains unhealed, as Lee probably hasn’t forgotten that some members of his own party voted in favor of his arrest last September.