Donald Trump is back, having won re-election as president on November 5. The first Trump administration ushered in a massive shift to a ruthless policy toward China. What does this election result mean to China? And what do ordinary Chinese people think of the U.S. election and Trump?
Chinese People Paid Less Attention to This Election
I have been reporting on U.S. elections in Chinese media since 2012, but I found this time that the Chinese people are not as interested in this U.S. election compared to previous ones. China’s state-owned media begin to heavily report on the election just a week before polling day. Instead, international news in Chinese media is focused more on the Middle East conflict and Ukraine war.
I have 2 million followers on various social media platforms in China. Almost every day, I write some posts about international affairs, below which there will be a large number of comments by Chinese netizens. It has become a window for me to observe Chinese public opinion. I notice netizens’ comments on the U.S. election only increased significantly a few days before and after election day.
I think there are two main reasons for the lack of interest. First, most Chinese share a consensus on the U.S. election: whether it is the Republicans or the Democrats in the White House, the result is the same for China. Second, Trump has participated in three presidential elections, so a majority of Chinese are familiar with him and lack curiosity.
China-U.S. relations has been very tortuous in the past few years; as a result, ordinary Chinese people have no expectations for the next U.S. president. In addition, the Chinese government and officials have a more mature understanding of U.S. diplomacy to China and are also not expecting a major change in approach, regardless of the president.
The Changes in the U.S. Are Greater Than Chinese Scholars Expected
Although ordinary people in China didn’t show much interest in this U.S. election, professionals who have been paying attention to international relations for a long time still observed the election very carefully and deeply. This kind of foreigner perspective can be more objective than Americans’ self-perceptions.
This time, Trump surpassed almost all predictions of polls and won more easily than in 2016, which shows that the changes in American society and public psychology are greater than previously thought. There have been many discussions about this change among Chinese followers of U.S. politics since the election. For example, Chinese social media has seen detailed analysis of the change in Miami-Dade county in Florida: Hillary Clinton won the county by 30 points in 2016 and Trump won by 11 points this year.
Therefore, Chinese scholars and media are discussing how this change in the political preferences of ethnic minorities will reshape the United States in the future, and what impact this might have on Chinese interests.
Most Chinese Probably Lean Closer to Republicans
On social media, ordinary Chinese people like to openly express their positions on the two U.S. political parties, which is quite interesting and also shows the United States’ international influence is still very large.
Some Chinese support Trump, which probably related to the fact that China has traditionally been a conservative society.
For example, some Chinese people are not interested in Western multiculturalism and cultural pluralism, such as LGBTQ rights.
Republicans also promise severe treatment of illegal immigrants. Many Chinese also feel antipathy toward immigrants, especially those from the Global South.
In addition, with the state of China’s economy, especially after the COVID-19, more Chinese people don’t like seeing the government exercise strict control of society and intervene too much in the economy, which is consistent with the Republicans’ self-branding. Chinese people also want to see reduced taxes, another staple of the Republican platform.
Meanwhile, the Chinese who hoped to see Harris win the election did not support her because they like the Democrats’ economic and social policies. Instead, they more endorsed the Democratic Party’s diplomacy, such as supporting Ukraine. Many Chinese people think it is justice to help defend Ukraine from Russia’s invasion.
When dealing with the Chinese government and the Chinese people, U.S. officials should not forget the impact of Chinese traditional ideology on social psychology. Over-emphasizing democracy, freedom, human rights, and multiculturalism may not necessarily be popular among ordinary Chinese people, especially grassroots Chinese, who are the biggest supporters of the Chinese government and the CCP.
Trump Has Two Possibilities in Policy
Chinese social media believes there are two possible paths for Trump’s second presidential term.
One argument stresses that this will be Trump’s final term as president, and that the Republican Party also performed well in the congressional elections this time. Therefore, Trump has no any political constraints and can do whatever he wants, which is a big risk for the United States and the world.
Another argument, however, is that this is Trump’s last chance to be in politics, and he wants to leave a political, economic, and diplomatic legacy and bolster his historical reputation. Therefore, he may be more cautious than during his pervious term, so that his image will be better. He may try to bridge the divisions and differences in American society.
If Trump and his group are rational, choosing the second option will be more beneficial to him and the Republican Party. Of course, I have also seen American media reports on the Republican platform. If it is fully implemented, it will mean trouble.
Trump’s Win Is Not Automatically a Bad Thing for China
All of the above analysis boils down to one point: Trump’s re-election may not be bad for China. Indeed, from China’s perspective the biggest problem with Trump is the uncertainty of his character and the difficulty of predicting his policies.
China has attached great importance to expectation management for decades. For example, it has continuously launched Five-year Plans to develop the economy according to a step-by-step blueprint. China’s diplomacy also involves new concepts that are given definite roadmaps, such as the Belt and Road Initiative.
Therefore, facing Trump’s uncertainty, China must feel that it is a potential risk. An unpredictable U.S. president will make it difficult for China to manage diplomatic expectations – and the end goal of diplomacy, after all, it to benefit domestic affairs and economic development. This characteristic of Trump’s will directly affect China’s long-term economic arrangements, and it must be ready to make adjustments to react to Trump’s policies at any time.
But the benefits of Trump’s win are also obvious: If the relationship between the United States and its allies is not good, it will certainly be more difficult for them to work together to contain China.
In particular, Trump mentioned before the election that he wanted protection fees from Taiwan. This triggered ridicule of Taiwan on Chinese social media, with users laughing that Taiwan has no sovereignty and is being bullied by the U.S. at will. Such actions and words from Trump give China a meaningful chance to enhance its influence.
I think China will certainly play tit-for-tat with the Trump administration on some issues such as trade tariffs and high-tech sanctions, but Beijing may be more comfortable seeing Trump’s drama unfold in global politics.
China Has Left Room for Continued Engagement With Trump
Although Trump’s China policy was tougher and even more irrational than that of the Democratic Party, China is not completely hostile to him. This is totally different from the relationship between Iran and Trump.
Trump’s policy toward Iran is clear and certain: He wants to force Iran to make complete concessions. After all, Khamenei is 85 years old and in poor health. Under the United States’ extreme pressure, Iran’s political situation will face real difficulties during Trump’s tenure.
But I think Trump and his advisers should know that pressure on China will not produce similar political changes. So, there is still room for bargaining in his policies on China, including tariffs.
This is similar to his attitude toward the Ukrainian war. Although Trump’s tone toward Ukraine is tough, there is still some room for easing the situation although Ukraine probably will have to concede some lands to Russia.
In fact, China has also left room for engagement with Trump.
Even four years ago, during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the relationship between China and the Trump administration was at its worst, China did not criticize Trump by name. In addition to diplomatic etiquette, this also reflected Beijing’s acknowledgement that Trump has a future in politics.
By contrast, Chinese officials scolded Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo by name as a “public enemy of mankind” and imposed rare sanctions on him. Therefore, if Trump appoints Pompeo to an important position again this time, China will definitely be unhappy, which may become an obstacle to the development of bilateral relations. Can you imagine a Chinese leader shaking hands with a “public enemy of mankind” who is under Chinese sanctions?
Whether Trump decides to appoint Pompeo to a major post can thus be seen as a weathervane of how Trump will develop relations with China.