On October 31, North Korea fired its newest and most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-19, into the ocean off its east coast. The test launch marked the longest-ever flight time and the highest altitude for one of the country’s missiles, triggering yet another round of condemnation from Japan, South Korea and the United States.
Pyongyang’s latest military provocation came less than one week after the U.S., South Korean, and Japanese national security advisers expressed “grave concern” over the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia for possible use against Ukraine.
On October 25, the three security advisers called on Russia and North Korea to stop military actions “that only serve to expand the security implications of Russia’s brutal and illegal war beyond Europe and into the Indo-Pacific.”
After North Korea’s latest ICBM launch, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there were 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia, including as many as 8,000 in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces continue to hold territory after fighting their way into the Russian border area in August.
Many experts in Tokyo and elsewhere fear that Pyongyang could acquire advanced military and nuclear technologies from Moscow in return, as well as battle experience.
Behind the growing confrontation in Asia between North Korea and the three countries of Japan, the United States, and South Korea lies in a severe security dilemma.
Both Tokyo and Seoul are surrounded by three nuclear-armed nations: China, North Korea, and Russia. In order to maintain regional peace and to uphold their own security, a certain level of deterrence is essential for Japan and South Korea. In particular, with North Korea continuing its aggressive nuclear missile development, the two nations have no choice but to rely on the United states’ nuclear umbrella.
Under this situation, Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral security cooperation reached a climax in August 2023 when the leaders of three nations had the historic Camp David trilateral summit.
But North Korea sees a different picture. A professor at Korea University in Tokyo, an educational institution affiliated with the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon), used to tell me that Pyongyang has no choice but to possess nuclear missiles, as it is surrounded by nuclear-armed nations such as China and Russia, as well as Japan and South Korea, which are under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
A column in China’s People’s Daily’s from January 2013 provided a good summary of the North Korean perspective on the nuclear issue:
Peace on the Korean Peninsula should be built on the basis of a balance of power on both sides. However, in reality, the military power on either side of the 38th parallel is like a rabbit versus a lion, with North Korea on one side and the U.S.-ROK alliance on the other. It is difficult to imagine that the powerful forces of the U.S.-ROK high-handed policies and frequent joint military exercises will not trigger a counter-force from North Korea. Prior to the U.S.-ROK joint military exercises in December 2010, North Korea declared that it would “launch a nuclear holy war if necessary.” In December 2012, North Korea launched a rocket and sent a satellite into space.
North Korea’s sensitive mentality continues to this day.
However, neither the United States, South Korea, nor Japan is thinking of attacking North Korea. Why, then, does North Korea stubbornly view the United States as its enemy, worship nuclear weapons, and push forward with strengthening its military power?
Another major factor is due to the history of the Korean Peninsula. The historical tragedy of the peninsula has given birth to North Korea, which view itself as a lone fighter, striving for independence and self-reliance.
Looking back at history, the Korean Peninsula has long been a battleground for the world’s great powers. It has suffered invasions and incursions from neighboring great powers such as China, Japan, Russia, and Mongolia.
Bruce Cumings, professor emeritus at the University of Chicago and a leading American scholar of Korean history, noted Korea’s traditional self-image as “a shrimp surrounded by whales” in his famous book “Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History.”
Of course, there is no doubt that strengthening military power is Kim Jong Un’s greatest weapon in maintaining his dictatorial regime.
Regardless of the rationale behind it, North Korea’s response is well-established. The more Japan, the United States, and South Korea strengthen their security cooperation, the more North Korea will push back. This is the law of action and reaction at work in geopolitics.
Furthermore, the more the United States strengthens its relations not only with Japan and South Korea, but also with Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other nations in order to counter the rise of China, the more it will bring China closer to the camp of Russia and North Korea.
“For deterrence to be effective, it is necessary not only to properly develop defense capabilities, but also to provide some assurance to potential adversaries that their core interests will not be threatened,” a group of experts on international relations said in a July 2023 report titled “Asia’s Future at a Crossroads: A Japanese Strategy for Peace and Sustainable Prosperity.”
The Indo-Pacific region needs dialogue and de-escalation, not further confrontation and escalating tensions. It’s high time for every side to talk and act to avoid the worst-case scenario of armed conflicts.
Japan, which has advocated a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” should act as a bridge in this region, where conflict and division are deepening, rather than pursuing an Asian version of NATO, as proposed by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru.