Donald Trump’s astonishing and comprehensive victory in the U.S. presidential election is having a serious impact on the global order through the emergence of a diplomatic “Axis of Trump.” The Axis of Trump includes Russia, Israel and India – all countries that are looking at the U.S. more favorably since the return of Trump.
Biden’s Disastrous Foreign Policy
Following U.S. President Joe Biden’s rather badly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the United States has been involved in two unrestrained hot wars. The war in Europe has gone on for nearly three years and the one in the Middle East for over a year. Dominant narratives in the West portray the leaders of the challenging nations, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Ali Khamenei, as megalomaniacal and tyrannical, determined to cause trouble abroad and tyranny at home, and blame them solely for the wars.
But many observers, not just U.S. political scientist John Mearsheimer, recognize that the wars were triggered by Biden’s efforts to expand U.S. influence, via the expansion of NATO in Europe and the expansion of the Trump-era Abraham Accords in the Middle East. Rather than being satisfied with preserving the status quo that already favored the U.S., Biden overreached. Jack Snyder in his classic book “Myths of Empire,” argued that empires indulged in self-inflicting damage when they subscribed to the myth that security can be guaranteed through expansion. For Biden too, expansion brought relentless and devastating wars, not security.
In both wars, the intensity of violence and accusations of genocide levelled against Russia and Israel by human rights agencies highlight how under Biden’s watch the global order, at least in two geopolitical theaters critical to U.S. national interests, has collapsed. The rules of the rule-based order have no meaning. U.S. allies are no longer able to deter their enemies and multilateral institutions like the United Nations Security Council have been rendered powerless and ineffective, often because of the way the U.S. has used its veto power. Russia and Iran may not have succeeded in ousting the U.S. from their neighborhoods, but they certainly have exposed the limits of U.S. power and undermined the liberal order, perhaps beyond repair.
Biden, despite his decades-long experience in foreign policy, did not serve U.S. interests well in his tenure. The catastrophic withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan unleashed a series of setbacks for the U.S. in each of the three regions that Washington cares about. U.S. allies, Ukraine in Europe and Israel in the Middle East, are fighting desperate wars that threaten their very existence. Failures in Europe and the Middle East will only weaken the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific. As his term comes to an end, it will not be wrong to state that Biden’s foreign policy was a colossal failure.
But Trump’s victory has suddenly altered the international environment. Both friends and foes are suddenly engaging with the U.S. differently. Leaders are scrambling to his home in Mar-a-Lago to pay homage months before he is sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.
Israel
Consider Israel, for example. Since the horrendous terrorist attacks on Israelis by Hamas, the Israeli government has responded with relentless brutality, killing thousands of civilians and rendering Gaza unlivable. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has done this with “ironclad” support from the United States – billions of dollars in aid, a non-stop supply of weapons, and remorseless diplomatic cover from Biden. Yet the relationship between the U.S. and Israel became more acrimonious by the day.
But now after Trump’s victory, relations between the two nations are suddenly hunky-dory. Trump has nominated a few pro-Israel neocons to his administration, like Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Mike Huckabee. Netanyahu is so elated at Trump’s victory that he is gifting the president-elect with a ceasefire in Lebanon. A ceasefire as a gift! Suddenly a war of existence has become a war of choice. Trump promised peace in the Middle East. Is Israel reaching for the promise or does it fear upsetting Trump’s grand plans and is adjusting its own priorities accordingly? Whatever the strategic reasons for the shift in Israeli posture, it is clear who is in the White House matters. Israel could take Biden and his ironclad support for granted but not Trump.
India
The Indian establishment too is thrilled with the return of Donald Trump since many of the people nominated by Trump, like Michael Waltz, the incoming national security adviser, and Tulsi Gabbard, the nominee for director of national intelligence, are friends of India. A lot of people in India seem to think that because Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy are of the Hindu faith, they will be more loyal to India. People also remember the friendly rapport that Trump and Modi projected during their bilateral meetings during Trump’s first presidential term. The feeling in India is that Trump will be friendlier to India than Biden. They also seem convinced that what little pressure the Biden administration put on the Modi government for its horrendous record on religious and press freedoms and treatment of religious minorities will disappear in the Trump era.
Some of the more astute observers of U.S. politics are worried about how Trump’s America First agenda will impact India-U.S. relations in the areas of trade, tariffs, immigration, and defense technology transfers. India is now the third biggest source of illegal migration to the United States. How will mass deportations of Indians along with others play out on social media and a hyper-national populace in India? But while the concerns about potential policy discord are whispered, the enthusiasm for a second Trump presidency is loud.
Even Trump’s threat to impose hundred percent tariffs on BRICS members if they pursue de-dollarization has not raised serious concerns. The Indian establishment and the slavish Indian media remain extremely bullish toward Trump and reckon that the near future will lead to a very strong Indo-U.S. alliance. On my show, Khanversations, I now frequently remind my Indian audiences that Trump’s campaign slogan was “America first” not “India first.”
Russia
While there are some skeptics, most experts are convinced that Trump’s victory will result in an end to the Russia-Ukraine war with Russia ending up with much of its territorial gains. Both Trump and his Vice President-elect J.D. Vance are determined to end warmongering. All Biden has been doing for the past two years is fighting wars and spending over $250 billion trying to win them. Trump is clear he will not support Ukraine’s endless quest to defeat Russia at the United States’ expense. Some experts believe that the threat to end support will push Ukraine to settle now before it loses more ground. A threat to escalate support for Ukraine will make Russia come to the table. Either way, an end to the war allows Trump to focus on reforms at home and the economic challenge of China.
Putin has expressed interest in meeting with Trump, even before the inauguration. Clearly, he wants to make a deal. Putin will have to make some concessions, and Ukraine will have to give up some land, but the question remains whether the details of the Trump peace plan will resolve the issue or prolong the war. Trump wants this war to end. He has bragged about ending it in a day for two years. The Kremlin is confident that Trump’s win is a win for Russia.
India, Russia, and Israel, nations that have had troubled relations with the U.S. under Biden, are now looking forward to a more favorable relationship with Washington. While India and Israel feel that Trump will give them a free hand to pursue their goals without regard for human rights (of religious minorities in India and Palestinians), Russia hopes that NATO expansion will cease, and it will be able to keep the gains it made in the war.
There is a new minilateral club in town – the Axis of Trump.