The administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adjusted its foreign policy to safeguard the Philippines’ sovereignty and national interests in response to the escalating tensions with China in the South China Sea. This circumstance has compelled the Philippines to prioritize the modernization of its navy as a top national imperative. One of the Philippines’ current efforts involves strengthening defense cooperation with “like-minded nations,” driven by a clear understanding of the limitations of unilateral action in confronting China’s dominant military capabilities.
South Korea, one of the world’s top arms exporters and a fellow U.S. ally, is regarded as a top security partner for the Philippines. South Korea’s involvement in the modernization of the Philippine Navy has been going on for a long time. Since the Scarborough Shoal incident in 2012, the Philippine Congress passed the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Modernization Act, allocating approximately 75 billion pesos for the first five years of implementation to enhance the AFP’s capabilities. Through a public bidding process that began in October 2013, South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) won a contract with the Philippines for the two Philippine Navy frigates in 2016. The Philippine Navy’s first guided-missile frigate, the BRP Jose Rizal, was successfully handed over by HHI in May 2020, and the second ship, the BRP Antonio Luna, was commissioned in March 2021.
The Philippines continued to sign contracts with HHI for two corvettes in 2021 and six offshore patrol boats in 2022. It is expected that by 2028, the Philippine Navy will have acquired at least 12 vessels, including offshore patrol boats, corvettes and frigates from South Korea.
The Marcos administration has approved an expenditure of up to $35 billion (equivalent to 2 trillion pesos) for the Philippines’ armed forces modernization plan over the next decade. According to the military procurement plan, the AFP intends to acquire more military assets such as warships, submarines, or combat aircraft. Given the robust defense industry capabilities, South Korea will be the most comprehensive partner in supporting the Philippines’ naval modernization.
Most recently, during South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s state visit to Manila on October 8, 2024, Yoon and Marcos agreed to elevate the two nations’ relationship to a strategic partnership and strengthen defense and maritime cooperation amid growing regional security complexities. Beyond security and defense aspects, the cooperation also brings economic benefits to the Philippines, playing a pivotal role in enabling the country to maintain a budget for investing in the modernization of its military capabilities.
The strategic partnership between the Philippines and South Korea will not only open a new chapter in bilateral ties but also act as a basis for the formation of a new minilateral cooperation mechanism to navigate maritime concerns. According to an anonymous source, the Philippines wants stronger engagement by South Korean military forces in multilateral exercises in the Indo-Pacific region. More importantly, South Korea is also part of the trilateral cooperation agreement with the United States and Japan. This facilitates the potential integration of South Korea into existing minilateral partnership networks, such as the Japan-Philippines-U.S. or Australia-Japan-Philippines-U.S. groupings, or even establishing an entirely new mechanism.
During a meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting in Laos on November 21, defense ministers from South Korea, the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia met for the first time and expressed a shared commitment to “advancing a vision for a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region where international law and sovereignty are respected.” The ministers emphasized the importance of cooperation among the five countries in support of regional security and stability as well as the centrality and unity of ASEAN. Such ministerial-level meetings typically serve as a signal of the prospect that a minilateral cooperative framework may be developed in the future.
However, the internal issues that South Korea is currently encountering, arising from the aftermath of Yoon’s short-lived martial law declaration, might eventually hamper the process of collaboration between the Philippines and South Korea. First, Yoon’s declaration of martial law is threatening South Korea’s defense exports dynamic due to concerns about political instability, while also negatively impacting the stock prices of major defense contractors such as KAI, Hyundai Rotem, Hanwha Aerospace, and LIG Nex1. More broadly, South Korea’s economy faces the risk of shrinking, which could lead to a decline in defense cooperation assistance with partner countries, including the Philippines.
In addition, Manila has cause to worry about a change in administration in South Korea. Under Yoon’s administration, the Philippines has significantly benefited from a change in South Korea’s approach to the South China Sea dispute, with Seoul no longer maintaining the relative silence of previous administrations. However, if Yoon is impeached, there is a high possibility that there will be a transition of power in South Korea in the coming months. The most likely scenario would be the emergence of a new president from the opposition Democratic Party. Given the DP’s strong criticism of Yoon’s foreign policy choices, a new president might completely reverse course and potentially adopt a more conciliatory approach toward China, thus avoiding any explicit support for the Philippines.
In general, strengthening ties with South Korea will be in line with the Marcos administration’s current foreign policy and endeavors to build up the Philippines’ defense capabilities. However, the success of the Philippines’ foreign policy also depends heavily on the country’s ability to improvise in the face of the uncertainties of the strategic environment in the future.