December was a particularly active month for Australia’s engagement within the Pacific Islands region. There was the announcement of a new Australia-Nauru Treaty, followed by the signing of a new security agreement with the Solomon Islands, as well as confirmation that a Papua New Guinea team will join Australia’s National Rugby League (NRL) competition in 2028. All these initiatives are designed to consolidate Australia’s primacy in the region, and counteract the influence of China.
The new treaty with Nauru is built on a similar model as the agreement between Australia and Tuvalu last year, which consolidates security cooperation and effectively gives Australia a veto over any other security arrangements Nauru might contemplate entering into. Alongside this, Australia will provide US$62 million in budget support over five years – a considerable sum for a nation so small. Australia will also shore up Nauru’s banking system and telecommunications infrastructure.
Currently, Nauru only has one bank: Australia’s Bendigo Bank. It issues the Australian dollar as the local currency and provides international transfers – essential for an aid dependent country. However, with Bendigo signaling its plans to leave the island nation, the Nauru government began exploring options with the Bank of China. Canberra deemed the situation unacceptable, and so the Commonwealth Bank was pursued to fill the gap.
Like Nauru, the Solomon Islands has also switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in recent years, and this has come with significant rewards from Beijing. Australia is concerned about this influence, and what it will mean for an already fragile region. As a result, Australia will invest US$118 million into the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force and set up a new police training center in the capital Honiara.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele has expressed his desire to double the current Solomon Islands’ police force from 1,500 officers to 3,000, with the objective of eventually creating a domestic capability that can reduce its reliance on international partners. There are currently 14 permanently stationed Chinese police trainers in Solomon Islands; Canberra is hoping that its investment will prevent this presence from expanding.
Security and financial links are clearly important to Australia’s position within the region, but so is culture. For rugby-mad Papua New Guinea, confirmation that they will have a team in the NRL from 2028 will become a huge source of national pride. Australia will provide US$375 million over a 10-year period to set the team up and finance its initial years in the competition. It should be a significant soft power boost for Australia.
While rugby is incapable of binding Australia itself (given most states play the vastly superior, in the author’s view, Australian Rules Football), it is at least able to bind New South Wales and Queensland to PNG (and the Pacific more broadly), and this is good enough. It creates a constant stream of cultural interaction, and will beam more of Australia into PNG television sets each week. Even more importantly, it will beam more of PNG into Australian television sets (or at least those in NSW and Queensland). The formation of habits of interaction can enhance the sense of Pacific regionalism – with New Zealand also having a team in the competition.
These new agreements are significant wins for Australia in its quest to remain the dominant influence in the region. But it’s also an indication that Australia is needing to do a lot of work and spend a lot of money to maintain this position. It is positive that serious attention is now being paid to the Pacific Islands region, but it is also an indication that Australia may have previously under-resourced its efforts when it had far less competition. Of course, this is a natural response to a lack of competition, but with more foresight Australia wouldn’t be having to be so reactive to the moves of other states.
As power has shifted to the Indo-Pacific – and China has sought greater influence within a region that has a significant number of states, many of whom have or do recognize Taiwan – the Pacific Islands region has grown in strategic importance. Australia’s efforts to invest within the region will be welcomed, but Canberra’s strategy needs to move beyond just strategic denialism and into tangible and resilient developmental outcomes.