The Bangladesh Awami League (AL) emerged from a faction of the Muslim League as a secular force in the politics of then-East Pakistan. The party was founded as the East Pakistan Awami Muslim League in 1949. It was led by Bengali nationalists Abdul Hamid Khan Bhashani, Yar Mohammad Khan, Shamsul Huq, and Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy, a former prime minister of Pakistan.
Under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman during Bangladesh’s Liberation War, the AL became the country’s most popular party. Over time, the AL evolved into a family-controlled entity, dominated by the Sheikh family.
After the assassination of Mujib, as well as most of his family, his daughter, Sheikh Hasina, assumed leadership of the party, continuing the family legacy. However, her time in power saw a shift toward “one-party politics,” which gradually weakened Bangladesh’s democratic institutions. Her regime has been accused of overseeing 1,926 extrajudicial killings and 1,676 cases of enforced disappearances. The 2018 Digital Security Law was used to suppress social media activities, enabling her government to restrict the freedom of expression. Between 2018 and 2022, 1,109 cases were filed under the law, resulting in the arrest of 161 opposition politicians and 138 journalists.
Hasina was forced to flee to India in the wake of the mass student-citizen uprising in August of last year. A report released by the Bangladesh Health Ministry stated that more than 700 people lost their lives during the revolution that kicked off in July 2024. The same report also revealed that over 19,000 individuals were injured. Among the injured, 19 people became completely blind, while 382 others lost an eye due to tear gas and rubber bullets used by the police. Over the course of one month the Hasina administration detained more than 11,000 students and protesters, shut down the internet, and launched a crackdown.
The trauma from Hasina’s brutal crackdown still lingers in Bangladesh.
Five months after her flight to India, several burning questions remain: Can Hasina’s party return to power in Dhaka? Will the AL even be able to participate in the upcoming elections? What is the role for India and the United States, soon to be led by Donald Trump again, in the new politics of Bangladesh?
A report published by BBC Bangla on January 9 quoted an AL leader who stated, “Awami League will fully emerge in Bangladeshi politics within the next 2-3 months.” Another report by Dhaka Post also quoted an AL leader who emphasized that 2025 would be the year of the party’s comeback with the help of major world powers.
But what is the reality of AL’s return to Bangladeshi politics?
Jon F. Danilowicz, a retired American diplomat and former deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Bangladesh, told The Diplomat:
Historically, in Bangladesh parties in power have monopolized access to resources and harassed political opponents, forcing the latter to band together for survival while awaiting their return. Attempts by those in power to destroy their political opponents have consistently failed, including in the case of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. Given this, I think it is unlikely that the Awami League is simply going to disappear, despite the widespread anger about its years of misrule. To me, the question is whether new leadership could emerge in the AL to challenge control of the Sheikh family. All that said, the rehabilitation or rebuilding of the AL will likely take years.
Despite its years of misrule, the AL is not banned and retains its registration with the Election Commission. The largest opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has opposed the idea of banning any political party, meaning that the AL could legally participate in the next election. But how might this play out?
Dr. Sreeradha Datta, a professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs and a non-resident senior fellow with the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, warned of a potential political crisis during the election. She suggested that “a faction within BNP might prefer the AL to serve as the opposition, as this could benefit their agenda. The student movement believes that AL should no longer have space in the country’s politics due to its past actions. The critical question is: How much resistance will students show against this, and will the government be able to deny their demands?”
Datta continued, “Sheikh Hasina may not participate in the election, but the AL will undoubtedly push to retain its political presence. However, entirely excluding the AL from elections would not be logical; they should be allowed to contest. Nevertheless, I do not foresee any significant space for the AL in the next two elections.”
Danilowicz agreed with Datta that there is no major future for AL in the upcoming elections.
If the AL joins the elections, it would open a path to political resettlement and a potential future breakthrough back into politics for the party. However, the trauma from Hasina’s brutal crackdown still exists in Bangladesh, and people remain scared of the AL. In the next elections, there is a high possibility that the AL could face mob justice.
Datta raised another concern stating, “The AL may attempt to create a disruptive situation in the elections, potentially seeking international intervention. Even if they choose to participate in the elections, they are unlikely to approach the process passively. Therefore, the interim government of Bangladesh and the Election Commission must be well-prepared to address and mitigate the risks associated with such potential crises.”
In Bangladesh, domestic politics and the influence of major powers is a vibrant topic of discussion. India, the United States, and the European Union are often discussed as key players in determining Bangladesh’s future. But does their involvement truly matter?
“I think that the role of external actors in Bangladeshi politics is most often overstated,” Danilowicz stated. “While some outside actors have expressed preferences for certain political parties, there is little they can do to affect Bangladesh’s domestic politics. The biggest impact of foreign powers has been psychological.”
There is speculation among AL leaders that India and the Trump administration might play a role in the reintegration of the party. Danilowicz disagrees with this view.
“Given recent events and a rise in anti-Indian sentiment, however, perceived Indian support for Bangladeshi political actors could be seen as a negative in the next election cycle,” Danilowicz told The Diplomat.
Regarding the Trump administration’s potential policy toward Bangladesh, he added, “The Awami League and its supporters mistakenly believe that the Biden administration played some role in the events of August 2024. They now think that there is some way in which the Trump administration would intervene to return the AL to power, either directly or in concert with India. Again, this is indulging in fantasy, as there is no incentive for the U.S. to act in this manner. The Bangladeshi people will ultimately choose their own political destiny.”
Danilowicz continued: “At worst, the Awami League’s supporters might try to convince the Trump administration to reduce U.S. support for Bangladesh’s political and economic reform program. This would hurt U.S. interests in Bangladesh but would not likely have any effect on the ground, as there is a broad international coalition supporting the interim government, and others would likely step in to fill whatever void might be created by U.S. retrenchment.
“Ironically, the main impact of a U.S. decision to pull back in Bangladesh would be to open the door for China to enhance its status in Bangladesh, which is not in anyone’s interest,” he added.
Bangladesh-India relations are still struggling, with new issues arising every day that burden the relationship. The relationship between India and the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, as well as with the BNP, which is expected to come to power, is also fragile. Former diplomats who served in the Indian Bangladesh mission continue to give lip service in the media in favor of Hasina. In contrast, some Bangladeshi politicians have taken an anti-India stance. Will India change its “keep all eggs in the AL’s basket” policy?
In response to this question, Datta said, “Sheikh Hasina’s fall was undoubtedly a significant shock for India. Policymakers who had fostered warm ties with her administration may struggle to adapt initially.”
She added:
The relationship between India and Bangladesh is unique and essential. Both nations need to cooperate despite potential alliances with other countries. For instance, if Bangladesh engages with China or Pakistan, it does not mean India’s role will diminish, nor should Bangladesh be sidelined as India strengthens its ties with the U.S. While India has successfully built relations with the new governments in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, and despite its historical connection with the Awami League, state-to-state relations between India and Bangladesh will need to continue regardless of who is in power.
Over the last decade, the BNP attempted to better relations with India but the party did not see much success in that effort. With the BNP poised to rise to power, how will the future government of Bangladesh manage its relations with India?
Datta commented, “It’s true that the BNP has not yet established a strong rapport with India. However, not all BNP leaders are critical of India. The general secretary of the BNP, for example, has adopted a more statesmanlike approach and demonstrated India-friendly behavior. While some BNP members continue to deliver anti-India rhetoric, it would be unfair to characterize the entire party’s stance as anti-India.”
She remains hopeful for better relations between India and Bangladesh under the next political government.