On January 8, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with the Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. It was the Taliban regime’s highest level of diplomatic talks with New Delhi since the group took over Kabul in August 2021. According to a statement from the Taliban’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “comprehensive talks were held on political, economic and people-to-people relations between the two countries during the meeting.”
Muttaqi also expressed gratitude for India’s humanitarian assistance and emphasized his wish to strengthen political and economic ties between the Taliban government in Kabul and New Delhi. He also called India a “key regional and economic player” that could complement his government’s economy-centric and balanced foreign policy.
During the meeting, Muttaqi also assured the Indian foreign secretary that Afghanistan “does not pose a threat to any nation” and hoped for increased diplomatic ties along with an easing visa regime for businessmen, patients, and students from Afghanistan.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said after the meeting in Dubai that New Delhi was not only looking to enhance trade ties with Afghanistan but also considering engaging in development projects in the country.
India made large investments in Afghanistan after the Taliban regime was toppled by the United States in 2001. According to official estimates, India spent approximately $3 billion on different projects including roads, dams, and trade infrastructure during two decades of the presence of the U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. When the Ghani government fell in August 2021, it was a huge blow to Indian interests, given the money it had spent to gain influence in Afghanistan.
Right after the fall of the Ghani administration, India closed its embassy and consulates in Afghanistan. However, it has maintained a small mission, referred to as a technical team, in Afghanistan since June 2022 “to closely monitor and coordinate the efforts of various stakeholders for the effective delivery of humanitarian assistance and in continuation of our engagement with the Afghan people” under the Taliban regime. There was more to this mission in Afghanistan. In this context, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, a former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan between 2010 and 2013, said, “It’s an opening gambit so to speak, in some ways you are back in the game.” He further said, “Reopening the Indian Embassy is really about keeping our eyes and ears on the ground and exploring the possibility of a working relationship with the Taliban, which includes security assurances that Afghan territory would not be used, particularly by Pakistan against India.”
Thus, the meeting last week between Misri and Muttaqi seems to be a connecting dot in New Delhi’s foreign policy engagement in Afghanistan, linking its pre-Taliban investments in the country to the present reality under the Taliban’s de facto rule.
It is also pertinent to note here that Afghanistan’s embassy in New Delhi was closed in November 2023. Diplomats appointed by the previous government said that pressure from both the Taliban and the Indian government forced their decision to close. A few days after the exit of the previous diplomats, the Taliban claimed its own diplomats had taken charge of Afghanistan’s embassy in New Delhi. The turn of events was considered a dramatic change in India’s policy toward Afghanistan under Taliban.
Since seizing power from the Ghani administration, the Taliban have yet to receive official recognition from any foreign country, including India.
Despite its significance for the Taliban, the Misri-Muttaqi meeting came at a time when the relations between Pakistan and the Taliban are at their lowest after Pakistani forces launched air strikes inside Afghanistan claiming to target camps of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan last month. India condemned the strikes, and External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “We unequivocally condemn any attack on innocent civilians. It is an old practice of Pakistan to blame its neighbors for its internal failures.” Such a harsh condemnation in favor of the Taliban, followed by the Misri-Muttaqi meeting, seems to suggest that Pakistan is on the verge of losing, or has already lost, its erstwhile friend to none other than its arch-rival India.
For the Taliban, it is not only important to display their independence from Pakistan’s influence but also to remain relevant in regional affairs. After coming into power, the Taliban have shown again and again that they are not going to be controlled by any foreign force, including Pakistan. The Taliban, with their control of Afghanistan for over three years despite international isolation and economic sanctions, are giving a strong message that they do not require Pakistan’s support.
But Afghanistan is a landlocked country and relies heavily on trading routes from its neighboring countries, including Pakistan. In order to expand its trading horizons, Afghanistan wants to boost its trade through other routes. As per Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during last week’s meeting, both countries discussed boosting trade through the Chabahar Port in Iran. In May 2024, India signed a 10-year contract with Iran to develop and operate the Chabahar Port. To bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports, India has been developing Chabahar on the southeastern coast of Iran along the Gulf of Oman to transport goods to Iran, Central Asian countries, and to Afghanistan. The Taliban also seem resolute to move away from the dependence on Pakistan’s Gwadar port. Thus, they will get a trading boost, if Afghanistan gets access to Chahbahar port. All these developments in Taliban and India relations could be problematic for Pakistan’s interests not only in Afghanistan but also in the region.