Although China has not yet officially recognized the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, it has been steadily deepening ties with them. Its efforts to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties have intensified in recent months.
On October 24, 2024, Beijing’s envoy to Kabul expressed interest in investing in Afghanistan while pledging tariff exemptions for Afghan exports to China. Subsequently, on December 30, 2024, during a meeting in Kabul with the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock, Chinese diplomats announced plans to build three modern cold storage facilities in the provinces of Kabul, Takhar, and Badakhshan. With a combined storage capacity of 1,500 tons, these facilities aim to support trade and preserve agricultural produce. China’s burgeoning commitment to Afghanistan’s agricultural sector, which is a vital pillar of the country’s economy, is growing.
While there are concerns that Afghanistan could get caught in a debt trap, where excessive borrowing leads to economic dependency or loss of strategic assets, as seen in Angola, Zambia, and Kenya, Afghanistan’s strategic engagement with China offers different dynamics.
Afghanistan’s unique geopolitical position and vast untapped resources create opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation rather than unsustainable debt. By ensuring transparent agreements, sound financial management, and prioritizing infrastructure projects that align with national interests, Afghanistan can leverage Chinese investments to drive economic growth without falling into a debt trap.
Afghanistan’s economic challenges and geopolitical isolation make strategic partnerships with countries like China critical. A strategic relationship with China could, in fact, present Afghanistan with two vital opportunities — preventing geopolitical isolation through economic cooperation and ensuring stability through strategic engagement.
Preventing Isolation Through Economic Cooperation
Since the Taliban came to power in August 2021, Afghanistan’s diplomatic and economic ties with other countries have significantly deteriorated, leaving the country massively marginalized on the global stage. Strategic ties with regional stakeholders, particularly China, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and infrastructural investments, could offer Afghanistan a lifeline to reintegrate into global systems and rebuild its economy. By leveraging the BRI, Afghanistan could begin to industrialize and draw much-needed investments to revitalize its infrastructure and trade networks.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship BRI project, demonstrates how Chinese investments can enhance regional connectivity and economic integration. With billions invested in roads, ports, and infrastructure, CPEC has helped bolster Pakistan’s role as a transit hub while strengthening its trade links. Afghanistan can draw similar lessons from CPEC’s success by aligning with BRI projects in the Wakhan Corridor. Furthermore, engaging with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional bloc advocating for multilateral trade, offers Afghanistan an opportunity to counter economic isolation and integrate into broader economic frameworks.
With nearly $1 trillion already invested worldwide, the BRI has the potential to provide Afghanistan with critical connectivity and development opportunities. The development of trade routes through the Wakhan Corridor could establish a direct link between Afghanistan and China. This corridor would not only enhance regional trade flows but also create jobs in logistics, construction, and related industries, driving economic growth in local Afghan communities.
China views Afghanistan as a strategic partner due to its proximity, resource potential, and position along key trade routes that align with Beijing’s Belt and Road ambitions. Afghanistan also holds untapped potential in sectors like renewable energy and mining. Developing the country’s hydroelectric resources requires constructing dams and related facilities, an area where China’s engineering and technical expertise could play a transformative role. With a proven track record of executing large-scale infrastructure projects globally, China could provide the financial and technical support necessary to harness Afghanistan’s energy potential.
Afghanistan’s natural resources, including gas reserves in Sheberghan and the copper mine in Logar province, offer a strategic advantage due to their proximity to China, enabling faster and more cost-effective shipping. Additionally, copper, lithium, iron, and coal, which are essential for China’s development and to control prices in the global market, further enhance Afghanistan’s strategic importance. With its advanced technological expertise and capital, China is well-positioned to efficiently develop these assets. By addressing its isolation through regional collaboration, Afghanistan could also improve its security environment, an increasingly critical concern in the context of regional instability.
Ensuring Stability Through Strategic Engagement
Terrorism and regional instability remain Afghanistan’s most critical challenges. China’s engagement with Afghanistan is driven by its desire to prevent extremist activities, particularly in Xinjiang. The East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), perceived by Beijing as a significant threat, has long been central to its security concerns. While China’s concerns over Uyghur militants’ threats have faced criticism for being exaggerated, its broader focus on regional stability could align with Afghanistan’s security interests.
China’s strategy involves leveraging economic investments to secure stability. The Taliban have pledged not to allow foreign fighters to use Afghan territory to pose threats to China, with assurances made in July 2021, a month before Kabul fell to the Taliban. Economic engagement with China provides a pathway for Afghanistan to strengthen its own security infrastructure while addressing China’s concerns. Drawing from its experience in Central Asia, China has invested significantly in infrastructure, job creation, and resource development to reduce vulnerabilities that extremists often exploit. Over the past 30 years, Chinese investment projects in Central Asia have totaled $64 billion, with direct investments exceeding $15 billion, bolstering regional stability. In Afghanistan, a similar approach could address its socioeconomic vulnerabilities while safeguarding China’s investments and preventing Afghanistan from becoming a hub for terrorism.
Afghanistan can leverage Chinese investments for economic growth, regional integration, and stability—without falling into a debt trap. However, success depends on transparent agreements, strong financial oversight, and diversified partnerships to avoid dependency and ensure that any development initiatives benefit the Afghan people. To maximize benefits, Afghanistan must negotiate fair terms, ensure financial accountability, and engage with regional partners like the SCO and BRI. Strategic planning will both strengthen Afghanistan’s economy as well as position it as a key regional player.