When Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets U.S. President Donald Trump there will be a lot of fanfare in the Indian media and one can anticipate the broad themes that will predominate. There will be chatter about the “visible chemistry” between the two leaders, platitudes about the mutual trust and enduring strategic partnership between the two nations, and celebration of how Modi’s personal diplomacy, the so-called Modi magic, charmed President Trump. I hope the policy community, however, does not lose sight of what is of strategic importance, the continuity of the U.S.-India partnership and the challenges that Trump 2.0 presents to India.
Many in India love Trump, a sentiment strengthened by the presence of some Indian-Americans in his team. The feeling, however, is not reciprocated by Trump supporters. The recent intra-MAGA fight over H1-B visas exposed the anti-India racism entrenched within Trump’s core supporters.
Additionally, Trump’s “America First” foreign policy will pose many serious challenges to India and force India to rethink its own foreign policy priorities. For example, the possibility that India could lose the sanctions waiver it currently enjoys with regards to the Iranian port of Chabahar threatens India’s investments and connectivity to central Asia. The threat of Trump tariffs looms large and could derail cooperation in the security and technological spheres.
Does Trump Recognize India’s Significance?
The stakes are high at present. The key issue really is how Donald Trump views India and its place in global politics.
India is an important player because of its huge population, the size and growth of its economy, its large and influential diaspora, its military, and its geographic location bordering China and straddling the Indian Ocean. The rise of China as a near-peer competitor to the U.S. and its aggressive foreign policy has elevated the strategic importance of India.
But does Trump recognize this reality as sharply as President Joe Biden did? Will Trump accommodate India’s strategic autonomy the same way as his predecessor? Will Trump accept that on some issues the two nations may have different views, and can he live with that?
Many members of Donald Trump’s foreign policy team, especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are China hawks and view India-U.S. relations through the lens of U.S.-China competition. Is India’s potential as a balancer to China, the sole reason for the strategic importance of India or does Trump recognize that a strategic partnership with India has intrinsic worth and is not contingent on U.S.-China relations?
How Does India Make America Stronger, Safer, and More Prosperous?
The Modi-Trump meeting on February 13 is pivotal. It will shape India-U.S. relations for the entirety of Trump’s second term. Trump has several issues he wants to raise.
Among these is the large trade deficit. Trump thinks that India is a major abuser when it comes to tariffs and that it engages in unfair trade practices. He will see the $45 billion trade surplus that India enjoys vis-à-vis the U.S. as proof of its bad faith trade relations.
The fact that India continues to buy military equipment from Russia and France, while seeking advanced U.S. military technology, such as the F414 fighter jet engines, is also an irritant.
Additionally, India is the third-largest source of illegal migrants to the U.S., currently estimated at above 700,000. This will be another topic that Trump cares about and will come up in talks. The U.S. has already started deporting undocumented Indians. Trump will want to know how this partnership makes America safer, richer, and stronger.
India’s Anticipatory Concessions
To ensure that the Modi-Trump meeting goes smoothly, it appears that India is already making anticipatory concessions. Here are a few steps that India has taken without any specific demands from the U.S. president.
During the Biden era, India’s alleged attempts at transnational repression, including the attempted assassination of U.S. citizens in the U.S., kept cropping up. At first, India denied the allegations but when the U.S. arrested an Indian operative, Nikhil Gupta, it agreed to conduct a high-level inquiry. The Biden administration kept up the pressure and put Vikas Yadav, a former RA&W agent on the FBI’s wanted list. After Trump’s election, as his inauguration date approached and the Indian media agonized over the fact that Modi had not been invited to the inauguration along with other world leaders, the Modi government issued a statement, a soft mea culpa, acknowledging the role of a rogue agent in the attempted assassination of a U.S. citizen, whom India considers a terrorist.
I see this statement, coming just a few days before Trump’s inauguration, as a clear act of deference to Trump that was never extended to President Biden.
The Indian government also announced last week that it was reducing tariffs. The peak tariffs have been reduced from 150 percent to 70 percent and the average from 13 percent to 11 percent. This announcement, coming days before Modi’s visit to the White House, is another act of deference to Trump, who has repeatedly criticized India as a major abuser of tariffs. Trump also raised the subject of fair trade in a recent phone call with Modi. Clearly, the Modi government is nervous after seeing how Trump has treated both friends (Canada and Mexico) and foes (China) on trade.
Two events this week begged India to stand up for itself and for the Global South. But the Modi government once again demurred to Trump. Trump announced that he would take over Gaza, ethnically cleanse it, and convert it into a “Riviera of the Middle East.” There were rejections and condemnations from many of the leading nations, including China, Russia, the U.K., France, Germany, Spain, and much of the Arab World. When asked about it in the Rajya Sabha by member Fauzia Khan, Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar declined to address the question. Later Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri simply reiterated that India’s policy on Palestine had not changed.
Similarly, India’s response to the rather inhumane way in which the Trump administration is deporting illegal migrants, in chains and shackles, was rather meek. Jaishankar accepted it without outrage as a standard practice in international relations. Weaker nations like Colombia have responded more forcefully and have sent their own planes to bring back their citizens.
Net Assessment
The Modi government is walking on eggshells, careful not to spook Trump before the meeting of the two leaders.
From the concessions that New Delhi has already made, it appears that the Modi government is preemptively bending the knee to Trump. I am not convinced that this best serves India’s interests. Trump respects strength and he likes to make deals. His approach to foreign policy is bilateral and transactional. By making concessions even before the meeting, the Modi government may have played cards best saved for when the game begins.