On January 28, the Awami League (AL) declared a series of political programs, including strikes and blockades, in an attempt to rebuild its support in Bangladesh. In the aftermath of the July 2024 mass killing and Sheikh Hasina’s departure from the country on August 5, the AL is facing an unprecedented crisis of political legitimacy. The student-led revolution captivated the nation, forced longtime AL leader Hasina from office, and led to the formation of a transitional government under Muhammad Yunus. The new government banned AL’s student wing, the Chhatra League, and initiated investigation against AL leaders, including Hasina.
This political turmoil has placed the party’s future in jeopardy, raising doubts about its viability as a political force. The Awami League’s crisis can be analyzed through three interconnected dimensions of political trust: relative trust, normative trust, and performance trust.
Relative trust refers to the perception of legitimacy a political entity holds in comparison to its rivals. Historically, the Awami League has relied on its association with Bangladesh’s independence movement and its claims of moral superiority as a vanguard of democracy and social progress. However, the mass killings of July 2024 have shattered this narrative. The party’s suppression of dissent through violent means – especially targeting students, who are traditionally viewed as the conscience of the nation – has alienated large sections of society. In the post-revolution environment, the AL’s relative trust has diminished significantly compared to the emergent transitional government under Yunus, which is perceived as reformist and untainted by past misdeeds.
The banning of the Chhatra League, long considered the muscle of the party’s grassroots organization, further underscores the erosion of AL’s comparative standing. Once a symbol of youth mobilization and idealism, the Chhatra League’s activities devolved into accusations of violence, corruption, and cronyism. The mass killings marked the culmination of these grievances, tarnishing the Awami League’s ability to present itself as the defender of democratic principles or a moral alternative to its rivals. The contrast with Yunus’ administration, which has focused on reform and accountability, makes the AL’s relative trust deficit even starker. As younger generations increasingly view the AL as an oppressive, out-of-touch relic, the party’s capacity to rehabilitate its image appears daunting.
Normative trust is derived from the alignment of a political party’s actions with the public’s values and expectations. In the case of the Awami League, its legacy as a champion of secularism, social justice, and democracy has been fundamentally undermined. Over its years in power, the AL has increasingly prioritized centralization of authority, personalization of power around Sheikh Hasina, and a systematic erosion of democratic institutions. These actions, far removed from the party’s founding ideals, have led to widespread public disillusionment. The mass killings of protesters last summer served as the breaking point, symbolizing a regime willing to deploy state violence to retain power.
The investigations against Hasina and other AL leaders for alleged abuses of power further challenge the party’s normative legitimacy. Public revelations of corruption, human rights violations, and mismanagement during the trials risk solidifying a narrative that the Awami League abandoned its ideological commitments in favor of authoritarianism and self-enrichment.
Compounding this issue is the party’s inability to articulate a coherent response to the revolution. Rather than engaging in self-reflection or acknowledging its failures, the AL’s post-crisis rhetoric has been defensive and disconnected from the aspirations of a populace demanding accountability and reform.
Moreover, the banning of the Chhatra League, while aimed at curbing political violence, has deprived the party of an essential normative link to its past as a student-led movement during the liberation struggle. This disconnect leaves the Awami League struggling to reclaim its ideological roots or forge a new vision that resonates with the contemporary political climate.
Performance trust, which hinges on a government’s ability to deliver on its promises and meet citizens’ expectations, has been another critical area of decline for the Awami League. Hasina’s government faced increasing criticism over economic mismanagement, including inflation, unemployment, and allegations of corruption. While the party often highlighted infrastructural achievements such as the Padma Bridge and digitalization efforts, these accomplishments were overshadowed by perceptions of cronyism, rising inequality, and the use of state resources for partisan ends. The disconnect between grand projects and everyday struggles eroded public confidence in the AL’s governance.
The unprecedented violence meted out on student protesters in July highlighted the party’s failure not only in governance but also in maintaining public order and respecting democratic norms. The use of the state apparatus to suppress dissent created the perception of a regime focused solely on its survival, even at the cost of civilian lives. This event, coupled with the subsequent revolution, starkly demonstrated the AL’s inability to respond to crises in a manner consistent with democratic accountability.
The transition to the Yunus-led government, with its focus on reform and transitional justice, has further underscored the Awami League’s failures. As the transitional government implements measures aimed at addressing systemic corruption and human rights abuses, the performance gap between the two regimes becomes ever more apparent.
Rebuilding political legitimacy will be an uphill battle for the Awami League. Its relative trust deficit necessitates a reimagining of its identity and organizational structure to regain public confidence. This effort could include a clear break from its recent past, possibly through a change in leadership, an apology for the July mass killings, and a commitment to internal reform. Without a credible narrative of atonement and renewal, the party risks permanent marginalization.
On the normative front, the AL must confront the dissonance between its founding ideals and its recent actions. Re-establishing itself as a pro-democracy, inclusive, and forward-looking party will require substantive ideological recalibration. Engaging with youth movements, addressing the grievances of marginalized groups, and demonstrating a commitment to pluralism could be steps toward regaining normative trust. However, the party’s ability to achieve these goals is constrained by the current charges against its leadership and the absence of its traditional grassroots structures, such as the Chhatra League.
Performance trust poses the greatest challenge. The AL must not only acknowledge its governance failures but also present a credible plan for addressing the economic, social, and political issues that contributed to its downfall. This would require a willingness to operate as a constructive opposition party, focusing on policy solutions rather than political maneuvering. The party’s history of centralizing power and suppressing dissent suggests that such a transformation may be difficult, but it remains essential for its survival as a political entity.
Taking stock, the AL’s political legitimacy has been deeply eroded across relative, normative, and performance dimensions in the wake of the mass killings that led to the Monsoon Uprising and Sheikh Hasina’s ousting. The party’s historical claims to moral authority have been undermined by its violent response to dissent and its inability to adapt to the demands of a changing political landscape. Its ideological incoherence and governance failures have further alienated a populace that once looked to the AL as a symbol of hope and progress.
The Awami League faces a precarious future. Its path to redemption will require an unprecedented level of introspection, structural reform, and engagement with the aspirations of a disillusioned electorate. Whether the AL can navigate this existential crisis and re-emerge as a credible political force remains uncertain, but its ability to do so will shape the trajectory of Bangladesh’s political landscape for years to come.