Does U.S. President Donald Trump plan to seek a dialogue with North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un? On February 7, as he welcomed Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru , Trump stated, “We will have relations with North Korea, with Kim Jong Un. I get along with them very well.” It was just one of many statements Trump has made that suggest a desire for dialogue.
Will a dialogue actually take place? There is reason to be skeptical. Certainly, Trump met with Kim in 2018 and 2019, but the international situation has changed dramatically since then. The world has been through the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the war in Ukraine and Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Interaction between the U.S. and North Korea has been minimal. It is unlikely that negotiations could simply pick up from where they left off.
At present, Pyongyang lacks the incentive to negotiate with Washington. There are two reasons for this. First, North Korea has made significant strides with its missile and nuclear weapons programs, giving it confidence in its deterrence. This leaves it less motivated to negotiate with the U.S. to ease the threat of conflict.
Second, North Korea is experiencing a period of economic development. Despite sanctions, progress has been made in finding substitutes for imported goods, and local industry is emerging. The country cannot sustain long-term growth without exports, but its military sector at least has established an export market in Russia, meeting the demand associated with the war in Ukraine. Again, this makes it less urgent for Pyongyang to negotiate the removal of sanctions with Washington.
As such, negotiating denuclearization with North Korea is going to be even more difficult than it was before. Kim was unwilling to make any commitments on denuclearization at his summits with Trump in 2018 and 2019. Since then, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland, giving it a deterrence against the U.S. threat of military action. As long as Pyongyang perceives this threat, it will not abandon its nuclear weapons. Moreover, North Korea developed its nuclear weapons and missiles independently, and it will not relinquish them easily.
Nonetheless, a ceasefire in Ukraine could open up a pathway toward dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang. First, if a ceasefire is in fact put in place, North Korea’s value to Russia will diminish. Trade between Russia and North Korea will decline. That in turn will motivate Pyongyang to seek a lifting of sanctions.
Additionally, if the ceasefire favors Russia, North Korea will likely become less wary of the U.S. since it will view that outcome as also signifying a “victory” for North Korea. The U.S. has supported Ukraine during the conflict, while North Korea has backed Russia. This stance will not change for North Korea, even if the Trump administration withdraws its support for Ukraine.
The circumstances surrounding the Vietnam War were strikingly similar. The U.S. backed the South, while North Korea supported the North. Ultimately, North Vietnam emerged victorious, along with North Korea, while the U.S. faced defeat in its withdrawal from the conflict. A similar outcome in Ukraine will give North Korea confidence in its position vis a vis the U.S. and it will be less wary.
Yet this remains a possibility at best. Absent a ceasefire in Ukraine, the chances of talks look slim. Even if the U.S. and North Korea do engage in discussions, it is unclear what they will be negotiating.
As noted, denuclearization is not a realistic possibility. North Korea believes that it is only the effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent that has stopped the U.S. or South Korea from attacking it. It will not give up its nuclear weapons until it believes the threat has passed. The notion that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons as a form of brinkmanship to obtain foreign currency is wishful thinking in Washington and Seoul. What North Korea really seeks in developing nuclear weapons is security.
This leaves the U.S. little of substance to negotiate with North Korea. Until a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine, North Korea also has little of significance to discuss. If a ceasefire is established, Pyongyang may pursue the lifting of sanctions, but it will not consider the denuclearization that Washington wants. As such, any agreement will be elusive. Even if the Trump administration tries to initiate talks to ease tensions, Kim is not likely to engage in casual dialogue.
Negotiations have broken down before, at the 2019 summit. So even if dialogue is initiated, it is unlikely to yield results. Given that reality, it is hard to see why the two countries would even make the attempt.