In 2024, Mongolia and Kazakhstan elevated their traditional friendly relations to a new level: a strategic partnership. The upgraded relationship between Ulaanbaatar and Astana is one example of how landlocked Mongolia navigates geopolitical challenges to expand its political and economic ties with “third neighbors” – including partners in Central Asia.
Mongolia and Kazakhstan established diplomatic relations in 1992, one year after Kazakhstan became independent, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. At the time, Mongolia was going through its democratization process while Kazakhstan was setting itself up as an independent state. Mongolia’s recognition of Kazakhstan’s independence was important in establishing modern diplomacy between the new governments of both countries.
Kazakhstan’s long-ruling President Nursultan Nazarbayev visited Mongolia in 2008. During this trip, Nazarbayev was awarded the highest honor of Mongolia, the Order of Erdene Ochir, for his contribution to the development of Mongolia-Kazakhstan bilateral relations.
Sixteen years later, in 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid a historic state visit to Mongolia. During the high-level meeting between Tokayev and his counterpart, Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, the two leaders emphasized the past cooperation as a success, but also looked to opportunities to advance and diversify cooperation, particularly in the areas of trade, new technologies, and space research.
Tokayev’s state visit to Ulaanbaatar resonated on a diplomatic level but also a cultural one. In his message to the Mongolian government and the people, Tokayev stated, “This State Visit holds special importance to me. Mongolia is an important neighboring country in our region. Our two countries share mutual goodwill, a common history, and shared intellectual and cultural values.”
Indeed, beyond the government-to-government relations, the cultural ties between Mongolia and Kazakhstan touch on issues of historical and contemporary identity.
Historically, Mongolia has been involved the migrations of the Kazakh people and the protection of their culture. After Kazakhstan’s independence in 1991, many members of the Kazakh Mongolian population relocated to Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, however, the transition to independence, coupled with economic turbulence brought hardship for resettled Kazakh Mongolians. Thousands eventually returned to Mongolia. Today, Kazakh Mongolians make up 4 percent of the country’s population, mostly living in Bayan-Ulgii and neighboring provinces.
The Kazakh Mongolian population represents a rich cultural vein in Mongolia’s ethnic diversity, which helps the country to connect with rest of the world. For example, the documentary “The Eagle Huntress” featured Aisholpan Nurgaiv, a young Kazakh Mongolian who breaks barriers by taking part in The Golden Eagle Festival, a traditionally male competition. The film – with dialogue in Kazakh – brought international acclaim and boosted interest in tourism to Mongolia. With this strong cultural representation, the Kazakh Mongolian population serves as a bridge for Ulaanbaatar to engage with countries such as Turkiye and Kazakhstan, and beyond.
In the most recent example of cultural connections, Mongolia again took part in the World Nomad Games, the fifth iteration of which was hosted by Kazakhstan in September 2024.
The strategic partnership between Mongolia and Kazakhstan aims to build on these already-established historical and cultural ties to expand economic activities between the two countries. The forging of an economic partnership is underway as both governments aim to navigate the quickly changing geopolitical landscape.
Currently, Kazakhstan-Mongolia trade is just over $150 million, representing a paltry 0.5 percent of Mongolia’s total trade and just 0.1 percent of Kazakhstan’s. The strategic partnership envisions boosting bilateral trade, with a goal of reaching $500 million. To that end, Mongolia and Kazakhstan signed a “Roadmap for Intensifying Trade and Economic cooperation between Mongolia and the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2025-2027” during Tokayev’s visit to Mongolia.
Beyond trade, the two governments look to foster stronger tourism ties and investment cooperation in “agriculture, mining and metallurgy, energy, transport, logistics, and finance.” Kazakhstan’s foreign policy concept 2020-2030 will play an important role in the sectors Astana prioritizes.
Given Mongolia’s ambition to expand economic relations with both traditional and nontraditional partners, Ulaanbaatar’s approach to Kazakhstan also eyes the rest of Central Asia. A strategic partnership with Kazakhstan creates opportunities for stronger bilateral mechanisms with other Central Asian countries as well as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The EAEU, established in 2015, is a Russia-centered grouping aimed at increasing economic cooperation. The current members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia; Cuba, Moldova, and Uzbekistan hold observer status within the EAEU.
The question of whether Mongolia should sign a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EAEU has sparked a heated debate among policymakers and domestic producers. Negotiations began in 2019 but entered a more serious phase in 2024. In a statement to journalists, Tokayev said that Kazakhstan “support[s] Mongolia’s aspiration to pursue a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.” Major businesses, however, have opposed Mongolia forging closer ties with the grouping, arguing that it will harm domestic businesses.
Forging economic partnerships with members countries on a bilateral mechanism serve Mongolia’s small economy better than establishing an EAEU-wide FTA. An inflow of tariff-free goods, vegetables, eggs, wheat, and flour from EAEU member states would impact Mongolia’s domestic production, and the little manufacturing Mongolia does.
However, policymakers have emphasized the importance of food security, a hard lesson learned during the pandemic. Proponents of the FTA says that it will ensure consistent supplies of certain categories of food. The question of the Mongolia-EAEU FTA remains open and will be discussed during the spring parliamentary session.
One of the geographical challenges that Mongolia and Kazakhstan face is that any trade will need to go through either China or Russia. For logistics and transportation access, Kazakhstan and Mongolia plan to build a new highway between the two countries, but will require approval and cooperation from Russia, through which the road will transit. If approved by Moscow, “The route will connect the Kazakh cities of Ust-Kamenogorsk and Ridder, as well as the Russian locality of Tuekta in the Altai Republic, leading to the Mongolian border,” Interfax reported.
These economic initiatives – whether exploring an FTA with the EAEU or building a road between Mongolia and Kazakhstan via Russia – demonstrate Ulaanbaatar’s efforts to expand global ties and foster stronger economic relations with diverse partners. The newly established strategic partnership with Kazakhstan will be an important part of Ulaanbaatar’s approach to Central Asia more broadly.
The materialization of these ideas, however, is another question that depends on many moving variables, including geopolitical shifts and government decisions. Connecting Mongolia and Kazakhstan may offer economic benefits to both countries but also touches on transnational issues that involve Russia and China as well.