Last week, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by Philippine police at the request of the International Criminal Court (ICC), in connection with their investigation into his bloody “war on drugs.” The anti-narcotics campaign, which spanned across his Davao mayorship and 2016-2022 presidency, saw thousands killed without trial for their alleged crimes.
Duterte, 79, was arrested at Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport after returning from Hong Kong. He was quickly transferred into the custody of the ICC in The Hague, Netherlands, where he faces charges of crimes against humanity. The swiftness of the arrest caught many off guard, and it is the latest, perhaps most decisive, chapter in the bitter feud between two of the Philippines’ most powerful political families, the Duterte and Marcos clans.
The ICC, which has recently come under fire from President Trump over the issuing of an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will see Duterte’s extradition as a significant victory at a politically challenging moment for the court.
However, it is not just the ICC that has been navigating choppy political waters. Developments have led to a rise in tensions in the Philippines, underlining the fact that Duterte’s arrest is not without risk to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and the country’s domestic political stability.
Across the archipelago, there were outpourings of relief and outrage in equal measure. Whether residing at home or abroad, Filipinos tend to have a strong opinion on Duterte and his actions. In Manila, some flocked to churches to attend an impromptu mass to commemorate the thousands who fell victim to Duterte’s self-styled “drug war,” seeing the arrest as the first step towards overdue justice.
Meanwhile, in Duterte’s stronghold of Mindanao, the sprawling southern island of the Philippines, supporters gathered in public spaces to show their solidarity with the former president. “Prayer rallies for peace” were held in the cities of Kidapawan, Panabo, Cotabato, as well as Duterte’s hometown of Davao. The extent of support for Duterte was further evident in a “solidarity march” through the streets of Davao City over the weekend, with crowds of over 20,000 in attendance according to local police. This has coincided with the 88th “Araw ng Dabaw” celebrations, which commemorate the city’s foundation. As a result, further demonstrations for their former mayor can be expected this week.
Interestingly, though, support for Duterte is not completely unanimous in the South. Last week, Ateneo de Davao University released a statement that supported press freedom and condemned the bullying and harassment of its students after a student publication came out in favor of the ICC’s move to arrest Duterte. The student paper had received significant backlash online, particularly from some Davao residents who were quick to distance themselves from the local institution.
Millions have interacted with Kitty Duterte’s Facebook statuses, which have provided updates on her father’s arrest and extradition to the Netherlands. (Facebook/Kitty Duterte)
Social media, particularly Facebook, is once again playing a central role in Philippine political discourse. Supporters of Duterte are taking to various platforms to voice their anger and concern at his plight. Many posts articulate key, longstanding attack lines of the Duterte camp. Among the narratives that are gaining traction include those claiming that Duterte’s arrest was unlawful, questioning the authority of the ICC, and describing the process as an encroachment on the sovereignty of the Philippine judicial process.
Furthermore, visually striking posts are spreading rapidly, including updates from Duterte’s youngest daughter Veronica, aka “Kitty,” showing her father seemingly frail while in detention. Interactions with such posts are numbering in the hundreds of thousands and even millions. Posts like this demonstrate the very profound and real sense of injustice and victimization that Duterte’s followers are feeling right now. Supporters are also changing their Facebook profile pictures to a graphic that reads “Bring PRRD [President Rodrigo Roa Duterte] Home.”
The extremity of the feelings felt by some Duterte supporters is captured in a viral Facebook post from “Fonts Stv Vlogs,” who is apparently a serving Philippine National Police Officer. It reads: “to ICC and Interpol, don’t hurt our Father [Duterte], otherwise we will chase you all even if you all hide in hell. This is not a warning. This is a threat. Even if we run out of each other.” A now-deleted post from the vlogging police officer even called for “war.”
The ICC relies on state cooperation from the country where the accused individual is located in order to carry out its mandate. Without cooperation, the international court cannot enforce its arrest warrants, effectively leaving it powerless. Yet, as recently as a few months ago, President Marcos dismissed the idea of working with the ICC. So why now?
Marcos’ newly found willingness to cooperate, as well as the pace of the extradition, demonstrates how relations have deteriorated between the Marcos and Duterte families. Duterte’s supporters are adamant that Marcos’ change of heart is a direct consequence of this feud, and that cooperation with the ICC is being used to deal a fatal blow to his adversary.
One move that could signal Marcos’ commitment to international law – and deter critics accusing him of using the arrest warrant as a political tool – would be to rejoin the ICC. The Philippines withdrew in 2019 under Duterte, after growing criticism from the ICC about his violent methods used to prosecute his “drug war.” Pressure from lawmakers and human rights groups are building on Marcos to rejoin the ICC, especially after he signaled his willingness to work with them on Duterte’s arrest. Geraldine Roman, a lawmaker and Marcos ally, said “it’s about time we return to the ICC and show the entire world that this country respects domestic and international laws.”
If the Philippines doesn’t rejoin the ICC, it risks leading those beyond Marcos’ usual critics to suspect that the swift extradition of Duterte was purely politically motivated. As The Diplomat’s Southeast Asia editor Sebastian Strangio writes, “whether [Marcos] does rejoin the ICC will be a test of how far [his] support for international criminal justice, and domestic accountability, really extends.”
Whatever the long-term relationship between the Philippines and the ICC looks like, it’s clear Marcos faces an immediate political landscape littered with potential flashpoints that could prompt anger off of social media and onto the streets in the form of civil unrest or violence.
However, perhaps the greatest overall risk to Marcos’s legacy would be a failure to see the grieving families of “drug war” victims receive some form of justice. Whether the component of justice is at the forefront of Marcos’ considerations remains to be seen.