By signing two contested U.N. resolutions on Cyprus, three Central Asian countries have distanced themselves from Turkiye, a move that could turn into a diplomatic quarrel among allies.
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are all members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), a group built around common cultural and historic grounds, which was founded in Azerbaijan in 2009 and is headquartered in Istanbul.
During the European Union-Central Asia summit held in Samarkand at the beginning of April, the three countries signed a joint text that supports two resolutions passed by the U.N. Security Council in the early 1980s (541 and 550), which consider the declaration of independence of a Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and “all secessionist actions” legally invalid.
International law gives the Republic of Cyprus, a EU member, full sovereignty across the entire island nation.
Yet, since joining the OTS as an observer in 2022, the TRNC has attended a number of summits, culminating in last year’s 11th summit in Bishkek. The TRNC had not been invited to join the previous summit in Astana.
Among Central Asian governments, Kazakhstan has been the most hostile to recognize any kind of sovereignty for the TRNC.
Since 2020, Central Asian countries have also accredited ambassadors to Cyprus, a move that had raised eyebrows across the rest of the Turkic world. The latest decision, different from just establishing diplomatic relations, marked a diplomatic shift, according to Murad Nasibov, the author of the Eurasian Geopolitical Reader newsletter.
“Central Asian nations may have kept it vague and continued engaging with both governments of the island,” Nasibov argued.
Instead, they chose to exploit the opportunity of the first top-level summit with EU representatives to take a stand on the matter.
According to observers, this could have followed a request from the EU side to unlock better terms regarding visa requirements and trade, also given the pledge to invest $12 billion in Central Asia.
Two years ago, Dietmar Krissler, an EU foreign policy official, had warned of potential “negative effects” for countries that would support the OTS decision to admit the TRNC as an observer.
While the Turkish government did not issue an official response, the news traveled across the diplomatic cables and prompted hostile rebuttals from TNRC and Turkish officials.
Erhan Arikli, the minister of transport of the TRNC, and Mustafa Destici, the chairman of Turkiye’s government-friendly Great Unity Party, called the move unacceptable.
“We cannot accept that the Turkic republics — which we consider friends and brothers — are opening embassies on the Greek Cypriot side while ignoring the TRNC, a country that holds observer status in the Organization of Turkic States,” Arikli said.
The TRNC side noted that Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan still hold friendly relations with the breakaway region.
According to Nasibov, the OTS could now either downgrade the TRNC to bar it from sitting at the observers’ table or only invite the TRNC to attend informal meetings and the summits held in Turkiye or Azerbaijan.
“Both would be a massive blow to the OTS and Turkish reputation,” Nasibov concluded.
The upcoming OTS summit in Baku, schedule for October, will be a test for these hypotheses.