On March 31, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev, and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov met in Khujand, Tajikistan, for a first-of-its-kind trilateral Central Asian summit.
The summit came on the heels of a historic March 13 deal settling the borders between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, achieved less than three years after the bloody September 2022 escalation of their border conflict. During the trilateral meeting, Rahmon and Japarov exchanged documents ratifying the border deal. Kyrgyzstan reached a similar deal deliminating its disputed border with Uzbekistan in December 2022, with the presidents meeting to exchange documents in January 2023. Rahmon and Mirziyoev also held a one-on-one meeting, during which they signed a protocol to ratify a treaty on allied relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The summit culminated with the leaders of the three countries signing the Khujand Declaration of Eternal Friendship, formalizing the junction point of their national borders in the Fergana valley.
The Fergana valley, a fertile region shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, is a key producer of cotton, wheat, silk, and fresh and dried fruits. It is Central Asia’s most densely populated area and in the past witnessed frequent clashes over access to precious arable land and water resources because of poorly-defined national borders, a legacy of the convoluted Soviet colonization efforts in the region. With the valley’s borders finally settled, the summit focused on expanding regional trade, energy exchange, and cross-border connectivity.
Rahmon and Japarov launched the 500 kV Datka-Sogd power transmission line connecting the energy systems of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The 480-kilometer power line is part of the regional CASA-1000 project – an infrastructure initiative that will facilitate transmission of 1.3 GW of surplus electricity from Central Asian countries to high-demand electricity markets in South Asia. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which hold some of the world’s largest hydropower resources, generate an electricity surplus during the summer months when their glaciers melt, which could benefit the neighboring densely-populated Afghanistan and Pakistan, which face acute electricity shortages in summer. The $1.2 billion CASA-1000 project, funded by international donors, is forecast to become fully operational in 2027.
The leaders of the three countries also discussed regional trade and tourism. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are aiming to increase bilateral trade, which fell to just $12 million in 2023, to $500 million by the end of the decade. Kyrgyzstan, a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), could now smooth the access of Tajik products to the richer EAEU markets of Kazakhstan and Russia. In 2023, Kyrgyzstan’s trade with Uzbekistan exceeded $1 billion, while trade between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan exceeded $500 million. Japarov also proposed creating a Schengen-type unified tourist visa that would allow foreign tourists to visit Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan on a single visa, boosting regional tourism.
The day-long summit ended with the presidents of the three countries visiting a fair showcasing artisanal goods made in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, and attending festivities celebrating the regional holiday of Navruz.
The summit and its preceding border agreements are notable as they were organized without external mediation from regional powers Russia and China. The summit also builds on Japarov’s recent consolidation of power in Kyrgyzstan and the highly anticipated power transition in Tajikistan from Rahmon to his son Rustam. Rahmon has been working hard to ensure a smooth power transition by clearing out Tajikistan’s parliament and government agencies of the political establishment capable of challenging his heir, normalizing the relationship with Iran, meeting with Putin in Moscow to discuss regional security and migration issues, and hopefully helping to end what was once the bloodiest simmering conflict in Central Asia.