With the return of Donald Trump as the president of the United States, South Korean diplomacy is facing unprecedented headwinds. Given Trump’s penchant for a transactional approach to diplomacy, it’s high time for Seoul to enact a new geopolitical balancing act.
Often criticized as too unconventional by many experts, Trump has adhered to a coherent, realist foreign policy upon close inspection. Take the Trump administration’s final national security strategy report in 2017. The document explicitly stated the U.S. president’s commitment to “principled realism,” casting doubt on the legitimacy of the postwar liberal rules-based order. Instead, according to Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser, the U.S. president has championed “peace through strength.”
This leaves South Korea in a severe conundrum: can it become a geopolitical swing state?
At present, the ongoing Sino-U.S. rivalry is pertinent to the country’s well-being. Although there were some signs that South Korean exporters have begun to shift their focus to the United States as their top export market, the recent figures show that China has regained its previous status as the largest export destination for South Korea.
Can South Korea follow other middle powers by pursuing a craftier approach to its foreign policy? As a recent article from the Economist observed, many countries are refusing to take sides with one specific superpower. In other words, Seoul does not need to choose between the U.S. and China.
During the early 2010s, when the Sino-U.S. tensions were less pronounced, Seoul strived to maintain the dual-track approach, “economy with China, security with the United States,” assuming South Korea could maintain close economic ties with Beijing even if Washington remained Seoul’s treaty ally. This policy does not seem effective today, where economics and security are closely connected (witness the U.S. directives to limit foreign companies from selling highly sophisticated semiconductor chips to China). Given such reality, Seoul should adopt a new policy that embeds South Korea on multiple fronts, using China and Russia as strategic assets to reduce U.S. pressure on Seoul and potentially gain more autonomy in its foreign policy decisions.
Beijing has shown a willingness to maintain stable relations with Seoul as uncertainties are rising in the international landscape. South Korea could use China’s goodwill to encourage the Chinese government to play a more constructive role in maintaining a distance from the Russo-North Korean defense cooperation. In a related move, Seoul should be prepared to reinvigorate its previously active commercial ties with Russia. This could be mutually beneficial, as Moscow may crave South Korean capital and technology to revitalize its post-war economy. South Korean policymakers should consider how these revitalized economic ties with Russia could help to curb the growing defense cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.
Concurrently, as the South Korean economy seeks to emerge from the current doldrum after the failed martial law by President Yun Suk-yeol, Seoul should reset its ties with Beijing by convening ministerial-level talks to explore the avenues of cooperation in culture, finance, and trade.
Analysts have argued that Seoul is well-positioned to obtain more benefits from Beijing, as Chinese officials would not want South Korea to draw ever closer to the United States. We have already seen both countries trying to work together in e-commerce, the battery sector, semiconductors, and tourism. Simultaneously, South Korea should balance its diplomatic outreach to China with closer economic cooperation with the U.S. by committing to new, targeted investments in the United States’ automotive, energy, and semiconductor sectors.
However, it’s important to note that this economic statecraft strategy may come at a cost, potentially leading to job losses and reduced manufacturing investment within South Korea. As a remedy, Seoul should implement policies to promote domestic manufacturing (smart factories, R&D hubs, and integration of IT and software, to name a few), cultivate new markets in the Global South, cooperate with China and Japan to reinforce the multilateral trade regime and boost domestic consumption through expansion of the social safety net.
South Korea has some powerful tactical tools at its disposal. The country is a reliable defense supplier and a major player in memory chip making and 5G networks. It is also set to play a pivotal role in shipbuilding . South Korea can leverage its diplomatic options by utilizing its distinct economic and security assets (not to mention Seoul’s proven track record in robust commitment to defense spending) to fend off unwanted interventions from Washington.
A recent book by Brookings scholar Melanie Sisson aptly illustrated there is scant evidence that China aspires to be a revisionist power. Such sobering observation should incentivize South Korean policymakers to work with Beijing and Washington to convene a security forum involving all regional stakeholders (China, Japan, the two Koreas, Russia, and the United States). The active participation of South Korea in this forum is not just crucial, but also indispensable, as it will contribute significantly to internationalizing Seoul’s security issues, bringing the geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula to the center stage.