We have now passed the 100-day mark of the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump. The president’s once-solid support is wavering. A public opinion poll conducted in late April found his approval rating at 42 percent, down 5 points from immediately after his inauguration.
The main factor behind this drop in his approval rating is the economic disorder resulting from Trump’s tariff policy. On April 8, the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on nearly all countries and regions, prompting a triple slump in U.S. financial markets, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar all falling. Subsequently, the administration announced that it would suspend additional tariffs for 90 days for any countries or territories that did not impose retaliatory measures. Even so, anxiety and discontent with the Trump administration’s handling of the economy has continued to grow. Confidence in Trump’s economic policies has fallen below 40 percent, while disapproval of his tariff policy has reached 60 percent. A recent Gallup public opinion poll found that 53 percent of Americans believe that the economy is worsening, the highest level since 2001.
Trump had shown little willingness to compromise on tariff policy, but amid mounting domestic pressure his administration is now exploring a course correction. On April 22, Trump told reporters at the White House that the cumulative 145 percent tariffs on China will “come down substantially.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who plays a key role in trade negotiations with Japan and other countries, echoed this sentiment at a closed-door meeting with investors held in Washington, D.C., where he also said that it was not the United States’ goal to decouple from China, acknowledging that the current situation of high tariffs between the U.S. and China is unsustainable.
Concern and dissatisfaction among Americans regarding Trump’s tariff policy are growing steadily, and Trump may face further pressure to revise his tariff policy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Yet the administration could also adopt a hardline approach in trade negotiations with foreign countries to demonstrate to the public that tariff policies serve as effective negotiation tools, even as public opinion becomes increasingly critical.
On April 8, the day before the additional tariffs were announced and with the global economy in turmoil, Trump boasted that foreign leaders were flattering him in the hopes of reduced or suspended tariffs. “These countries are calling us up, ‘kissing my ass’ to make trade deals. They are dying to make a deal,” he claimed.
On May 12, the Trump administration made a major concession in its tariff policy. In Geneva, Switzerland, Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for a series of trade negotiations. In a joint statement, the two sides announced that the United States would lower its tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China would reduce its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125 percent to 10 percent.
It appears that the United States had been pushing behind the scenes for tariff negotiations with China for some time. On May 8, when asked about the issue by reporters before the talks officially began, Trump responded with irritation, saying, “Who made the first call? Who didn’t make the — it doesn’t matter.”
Nevertheless, Trump has already shifted his focus, launching renewed criticism of what he called “unfair trade” by claiming that “European Union is in many ways nastier than China, okay?”
Following the dramatic China-U.S. tariff reductions, there has been a wave of optimism in Japan and around the world, with some hoping that Trump has learned the risks of tariff wars and Trump may now begin to ease tensions. However, tariff policy remains a signature element of the Trump administration’s agenda, and it is far from clear whether it will undergo a full-scale revision. We cannot yet afford to be complacent.
Japan has also been quick to join tariff negotiations in an attempt to secure tariff exemptions by partially complying with the Trump administration’s demands, such as expanding imports of U.S. cars and agricultural products. However, in its eagerness to reach a deal, Japan must not lose sight of an important principle: Trump’s tariffs have caused great upheaval in the free trade system long promoted by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Japan may be among the first countries to enter formal negotiations with the U.S., but if it accepts all the conditions imposed by Washington to avoid tariffs, it could become a successful example of Trump’s diplomacy, threatening other countries with high tariffs to extract favorable conditions for the U.S.
If trust in the rules-based multilateral trade system collapses, it will deal a serious blow to Asia, given its reliance on trade. While Trump has long deployed harsh rhetoric against Europe, the same sort of rhetoric is now being directed at Asia. Vietnam faces a 46 percent tariff, Cambodia 49 percent, and Japan has been singled out as a so-called “ally worse than some enemies” when it comes to trade. Trump has not hidden his hostility toward the postwar free trade system, insisting that the world has exploited the U.S. through free trade. This criticism has been aimed at Asian nations that have established and developed export networks with the U.S. since the rise of globalism in the 1980s.
Japan should work to deepen cooperation with Asia-Pacific nations to uphold the rules-based free trade order. Japan, Southeast Asian countries, Australia, and other countries across the region have made it clear that they will not take retaliatory measures against the U.S. This decision was wise. Instead of opting to promote the global spread of protectionism, the region must choose to defend and strengthen free trade. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes ASEAN countries, Australia, New Zealand, and major Northeast Asian nations, accounts for about 30 percent of global trade, GDP, and population. Japan, which played a leading role in reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after the first Trump administration announced its withdrawal, is well-positioned to take the lead in defending the rules-based multilateral trade system.