With the existing post-World War II international order in turmoil, there are growing calls for Japan to move toward a stance of “strategic autonomy” that is not influenced by the actions of other countries.
Most recently, Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani Gen said at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30 that it is important for each country to secure its strategic autonomy.
“There is a healthy sense of caution about excessive reliance on a country that does not share common values and interests. An appropriate level of strategic autonomy for each country is an important foundation for maintaining stable defense relationships,” Nakatani said in his speech.
Nakatani mentioned “strategic autonomy” as one of five encouraging trends in the Indo-Pacific region amid the current severe international security environment. The other four are: an expanded role for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in security; a strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance; unprecedented levels of cooperation between Japan, the United States, Australia, and the Philippines; and cooperation across the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions.
It appears that Nakatani was speaking to ASEAN countries with a focus on how to deal with China, rather than discussing Japan’s “strategic autonomy” from the United States. Regardless, it marked the first time for a Japanese defense minister to publicly speak about the importance of strategic autonomy, given that Japan is protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella and heavily relies on the United States for its national security.
In fact, recently, some senior members of the Japanese government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have been calling for greater strategic autonomy in Japan’s foreign and security policy, so that Japan is not swayed by the movements of other countries, especially amid skepticism about the sustainability of the U.S.-led world order.
The figures advocating such a position include Nagashima Akihisa, a special adviser to Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru in charge of key policies including national security, nuclear disarmament, and non-proliferation issues, and Kobayashi Takayuki, a former economic security minister.
In an interview that appeared in last month’s issue of the Japanese conservative magazine Seiron, published by the Sankei Shimbun, Nagashima emphasized the need to adjust Japan’s strategy as the United States changes its approach to alliances:
The words and actions of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and others are exuding a kind of rebellion against the ‘common sense’ surrounding the Euro-Atlantic alliance. I think we must be prepared to accept that the alliance is no longer a privilege. That is why we must continue to demonstrate that we are a ‘valued ally’ so that we can continue to attract the changing United States to Asia.
At the same time, we must also increase our national autonomy and strength. I would like to call this ‘strategic autonomy.’ In order to strengthen our own power, we must hurry to acquire counterattack capabilities and introduce active cyber defenses. It is also essential to deepen cooperation with like-minded countries such as South Korea, Australia, and the United Kingdom, and pave the way for ensuring peace and stability in the region without excessive reliance on the United States.
Nagashima also said on a BS Fuji television program on April 15 that U.S. President Donald Trump has a tendency to reduce Washington’s international involvement, and that there is even a possibility of Trump making a deal with China. Thus, Nagashima said, in order to avoid being at the mercy of the intentions of such great powers, Japan needs to strengthen its own capabilities and widen its circle of allies.
“Unlike independence from the United States, I think a direction of strategic autonomy will be required in the future in the sense of properly establishing our own range of strategic movement,” Nagashima said.
Meanwhile, on May 1, former Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi gave a speech at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA in Washington, arguing that with the world in turmoil due to Trump’s tariff policy, “we must create a Japan that is not swayed by the trends of other countries.” He too called for Japan to demonstrate strategic autonomy, this time in the context of Japan’s economic security.
“There are risks in relying solely on an ally like the United States for the market,” Kobayashi said, adding that he hopes the Japanese government will pursue diplomacy that further strengthens ties with the Global South (emerging and developing countries), including ASEAN, in order to expand alternative markets.
Satake Tomohiko, an associate professor at the School of Politics, Economics and Communication at Aoyama Gakuin University, said the concept of strategic autonomy may have only recently emerged in Japan, but in reality it has been around for a long time.
“Security cooperation between Japan and Australia is an example of that, as is cooperation between Japan and South Korea. It is a strategic idea of supporting the American presence while also teaming up with other countries. It has been around for a long time, so I don’t think it is something particularly new,” Satake said.
He also pointed out that the reality is that military ties between Japan and the United States are getting stronger, such as through joint operations between the U.S. military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
“What Japan is basically trying to do now is ‘integration.’ It’s exactly integrated deterrence. The idea is to integrate the chain of command and personnel with the United States and Australia as much as possible, and to cooperate seamlessly,” Satake said. “In this context, the idea of a joint force headquarters for the U.S. military in Japan has also come up.”
Satake asked the key question for Japan: “In the case of strategic autonomy, will we stop integration?”
He continued by answering: “On the contrary, the more the threat from China increases, the more we will have to integrate with the U.S. military.” He added that the goal of strategic autonomy was “easier said than done.”
Will Japan strengthen its pursuit of “strategic autonomy” in the face of the authoritarian Trump administration? And if so, will this conflict with the growing trend for Japan-U.S. military integration, such as through joint operations? And amid the shifting global geopolitical landscape and rising uncertainty, how much priority should Tokyo place on the pursuit of strategic autonomy? There are many questions that remain to be answered.