Southeast Asian foreign ministers and top diplomats from key partners including the United States and China were gathering in the Laotian capital on Thursday for the start of three days of talks expected to focus on the increasingly violent civil war in Myanmar, tensions in the South China Sea, and other regional issues.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi are expected to hold one-on-one talks on the sidelines of the meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Vientiane, which come as both Beijing and Washington are looking to expand their influence in the region.
Lao Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith thanked ASEAN members and partners for their “unwavering collective effort” that has led to its past achievements and emphasized the importance of the bloc’s continuous work to promote peace and stability.
“In light of the rapid and complex geopolitical and geoeconomic changes, we need to further enhance ASEAN centrality and unity so as to promote the relevance and resilience of ASEAN, aiming at addressing emerging challenges and seizing opportunity in the future,” he said in the opening statement.
For the ASEAN nations – Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos – the violence in Myanmar is at the top of the agenda as the bloc struggles to implement its Five-Point Consensus peace plan.
The plan calls for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, a dialogue among all concerned parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy, provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels, and a visit to Myanmar by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties. The military leadership in Myanmar has so far ignored the plan and has raised questions about the bloc’s efficiency and credibility in mediating peace.
Broader talks, including diplomats from elsewhere in the region including Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia, are expected to focus on issues including the economy, security, climate and energy.
Regional issues, including Cambodia’s decision to build a canal off the Mekong River that Vietnam, which is downstream, worries could have ecological and security implications, as well as massive dam-building projects in Laos further upstream could also feature in the meetings.
In Myanmar, the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 and suppressed widespread nonviolent protests that sought a return to democratic rule, leading to increasing violence and a humanitarian crisis.
In an effort to put pressure on Myanmar, ASEAN has prohibited it from sending any political representatives to top-level meetings, and it has sent bureaucrats instead. Aung Kyaw Moe, the permanent secretary of Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry, represents the country in this week’s meetings, which run through Saturday.
More than 5,400 people have been killed in the fighting in Myanmar and the military government has arrested more than 27,000 since the coup, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. In addition, there are now more than 3 million displaced people in the country, with the numbers growing daily as fighting intensifies between the military and Myanmar’s multiple ethnic militias as well as the so-called people’s defense forces of military opponents.
As the needs of civilians grow, discussions on humanitarian assistance to Myanmar will also be a focus of the ASEAN talks, Bolbongse Vangphaen, head of the Thai Foreign Ministry’s department for ASEAN, told reporters ahead of the meetings.
Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar, has already been heavily involved in providing humanitarian assistance, and Bolbongse said the country is ready to support the next phase of delivery being planned by the ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management.
He did not say when or where the aid delivery would be.
Thailand initiated its first delivery of aid to Myanmar in March from the northern province of Tak. It was said to be distributed in Kayin state to approximately 20,000 out of millions of people displaced by fighting.
Landlocked Laos is the bloc’s poorest nation and one of its smallest, and many have expressed skepticism about how much it can accomplish while the crises mount. But it is also the first ASEAN chair that shares a border with Myanmar. Laos has already sent a special envoy to Myanmar for meetings with the head of the ruling military council and other top officials in an attempt to make progress on the peace plan.
ASEAN also has introduced a mechanism of trilateral informal consultation among its current, past, and future chairs, specifically to ensure continuity in its response to the situation in Myanmar. The troika met for the first time on Wednesday, attended by Laos, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Indonesia Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said Wednesday after the meeting that she raised concerns about increasing numbers of cross-border crimes and refugees that resulted from a crisis in Myanmar. She said she urged ASEAN to “promote trust and confidence building through a balanced and low-key approach” to foster an inclusive dialogue among all relevant stakeholders in Myanmar.
“The worsening conditions in Myanmar have a direct impact on efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region,” she said.
Dulyapak Preecharush, a professor of Southeast Asia Studies at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, said ASEAN is not the only stakeholder when it comes to Myanmar, with China and India also major players – and both attending the ASEAN meetings.
Progress on Myanmar “needs to start with countries that share borders with Myanmar, such as China, India and Thailand, to find a joint consensus to address the problems” before expanding to other countries, he said.
In other issues, ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei are locked in maritime disputes with China over its claims of sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for shipping. Indonesia has also expressed concern about what it sees as Beijing’s encroachment on its exclusive economic zone.
An estimated $5 trillion in international trade passes through the South China Sea each year. China has been increasingly involved in direct confrontations, most notably with the Philippines and Vietnam.
This year, tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated, with Chinese coast guard and other forces using powerful water cannons and dangerous blocking maneuvers to prevent food and other supplies from reaching Filipino navy personnel.
The Philippines, a treaty partner with the U.S., has been critical of other ASEAN countries for not doing more to get China to back away from its increasingly assertive approach.
China and the Philippines said Sunday they have reached a deal that they hope will end the confrontations, aiming to establish a mutually acceptable arrangement at the disputed area without conceding either side’s territorial claims.
The rare deal could spark hope that similar arrangements could be forged by Beijing with other countries to avoid clashes while thorny territorial issues remain unresolved.
ASEAN has been working with China to produce a South China Sea code of conduct, which is expected to be part of the talks in Vientiane.