The upcoming United States presidential election is heating up to be one of the most consequential in recent history, with far-reaching implications not only for the U.S. but also for the world. In a dramatic turn of events, incumbent President Joe Biden announced the end of his re-election campaign last week and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s new presidential candidate.
This unexpected development prompted leaders and nations around the globe to watch the unfolding electoral race even more closely. Pakistani leaders are keenly observing the developments and pondering the potential impact a Harris or Donald Trump presidency could have on their ties with the United States. Pakistan’s relationship with the U.S. has been complex and often turbulent, especially during Trump’s first term in office.
During the Trump presidency (2017-2021), the Pakistan-U.S. bilateral relationship was characterized by Washington’s singular focus on concerns relating to alleged militant safe havens in Pakistan and complaints about Islamabad’s non-cooperation in dealing with the Afghan Taliban. The Trump administration cut off $1.3 billion in security assistance for Pakistan over these claims. In addition, the much-coveted training and educational programs at U.S. military academies for Pakistani military officers, a hallmark of bilateral military cooperation for decades, were suspended.
The Trump administration also sought to strengthen India-U.S. relations through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). It bolstered the idea of India as a strategic partner to counter China’s influence in the region, which further strained Pakistan-U.S. relations.
Should Trump win the presidential election, Pakistan can expect its ties with the United States to weaken. With U.S. forces out of Afghanistan and limited bilateral security cooperation in place, Washington under a second Trump presidency would likely reduce engagement with Pakistan further.
Moreover, Trump’s presidency is expected to see a tougher stance on trade and economic relations with China, including more push back against Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This could mean that Pakistan’s cooperation with China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) may come under increased scrutiny and pressure from the Trump administration, forcing Pakistan to choose between the two sides.
Furthermore, a Trump second term could also bring an even closer relationship between the U.S. and India, something that Pakistan has long feared. The recently proposed U.S.-India Defense Cooperation Act, introduced by Republican Senator Marco Rubio, strongly supports technology transfers to India and urges the current U.S. administration to treat India as a close ally, akin to Japan, Israel, and NATO members. The bill also proposes to bar Pakistan from receiving security assistance if it is found to have sponsored terrorism against India. According to the bill, Washington must strengthen its diplomatic, economic, and military ties with New Delhi to counter Chinese influence in Pakistan and elsewhere.
While this bill is unlikely to pass under the current Biden-Harris administration, it may be reintroduced in the next Congress. Therefore, Trump’s return to the White House is likely to complicate Pakistan’s security woes with India and also draw attention to its ties with China.
On the other hand, a Harris presidency may not see significant changes from the current Biden administration’s approach toward Pakistan. Under the Biden-Harris government, Pakistan’s ties with the U.S. have reached a somewhat more comfortable place, with Washington not hindering Pakistan’s efforts to mobilize financial support from international institutions and not pressuring the country on its ties with China.
It is worth mentioning that even after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden-Harris administration continued to see Pakistan’s support as essential to defeating al-Qaida and the Islamic State Khorasan Province in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region.
Moreover, the Biden-Harris administration brought the focus back on continuing to build relationships with Pakistan’s military through training future Pakistan military leaders. These areas of cooperation are likely to remain significant if Harris wins the November elections.
A Harris administration is expected to adopt a more nuanced and balanced approach toward Pakistan, potentially offering opportunities for the country to continue its security cooperation against terrorism and receive financial support. The Biden administration has requested $101 million in aid for Pakistan to combat terrorism and support economic reforms. This aid will likely be used to offer Pakistan arms and tools to ramp up its counterterror efforts against militant threats emanating from Afghanistan. This aid may come in installments, with part of it shifting to the next government. A Harris presidency could continue the military aid to Pakistan and may further enhance it if the bilateral relationship improves.
Overall, Trump’s unpredictability, expected disinterest toward Pakistan and potential shift toward India could complicate matters for Pakistan. In contrast, a Harris administration may adopt a more predictable and balanced approach toward Pakistan, potentially offering openings for continued security cooperation and fiscal support.